The Union is losing support, according to the ZDF Politbarometer. If a federal election were held on the next Sunday, the CDU/CSU would now have 29 percent (minus one), with the BSW gaining one percentage point, but still failing to clear the five percent hurdle with a total of four percent.
The values of the other parties remained unchanged. The AfD would have 21 percent, the SPD 15 percent, the Greens 14 percent, the Left 5 percent and the FDP 4 percent. All other parties combined would account for 8 percent, with no party exceeding three percent. In theory, the CDU could form a majority with the AfD, the SPD, or the Greens.
The proposal by the CDU to introduce stricter measures, which they would accept only with the votes of the AfD, is disputed among the respondents. In total, 48 percent reject this, while 47 percent find it acceptable, with the majority of CDU supporters (66 percent), FDP supporters (76 percent), AfD supporters (93 percent) and BSW supporters (60 percent) supporting this.
The assessment of the official CDU resolution, which rejects a political cooperation with the AfD in principle, shows little change compared to the previous week. The majority of all respondents (66 percent) still find this correct, while 31 percent do not. A majority of CDU supporters (72 percent) also stand behind this resolution, with 26 percent not in agreement.
The demand for the rejection of all asylum seekers without a valid entry document at the border, included in the five-point package of CDU chancellor candidate Friedrich Merz, is supported by a majority of the respondents (63 percent), with 33 percent opposed. The proposal for permanent controls at all German borders is also supported by a majority (56 percent), with 42 percent opposed, while the proposal for the permanent imprisonment of deportable persons is disputed, with 47 percent in favor and 47 percent opposed.
48 percent of the respondents doubt that these hardening measures would significantly reduce the problems in the asylum and refugee area, while 48 percent expect this. The CDU has the most trust in this area, with 26 percent, followed by the AfD (20 percent), the SPD (15 percent) and the Greens (10 percent).
Although the area of asylum and refugees has now clearly moved to the forefront of the most important problems in Germany, with the economy previously in the lead, the most important themes for the respondents’ own electoral decisions at the federal election are peace and security (48 percent), the economy (41 percent) and social justice (40 percent), with refugees and asylum seekers in fourth place (27 percent), followed by climate protection (23 percent) and old-age security (21 percent).
When asked who they would most like to see as the next chancellor, Friedrich Merz is now in the lead with 30 percent, followed by Robert Habeck with 24 percent, Olaf Scholz with 20 percent and Alice Weidel with 13 percent. When the question is narrowed down to the two top candidates, Merz and Scholz are now tied at 45 percent each. If the respondents were forced to choose between Merz and Habeck, Merz would win with 47 percent to Habeck’s 41 percent.
The survey on the Politbarometer was conducted by the Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, with interviews conducted by phone and online from January 27 to 29, 2025, among 1,428 randomly selected eligible voters.