According to the latest nationwide survey conducted by the “social, political and market research company” Ipsos, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) has for the first time overtaken the Union in citizen evaluations. The survey indicates that the party is receiving 25% of the votes.
The Union parties CDU and CSU have suffered a five-point decline from the previous month, resulting in a combined total of only 24%. Just days earlier, on April 6th, in the ARD Germany Trend poll, Union and AfD were once again almost neck-and-neck and the Union’s parliamentary secretary Thorsten Frei told the broadcaster: “These opinion polls are bitter for us. There is no question about that. But I am convinced that good practical politics can be the answer.”
In the “Berlin Report” broadcast, it was reported that the Union was now at 26% in the Sunday poll, only two percentage points ahead of the AfD, which was at 24%. While the Union is reaching its lowest value since October 2022, the AfD is achieving a new high in the ARD poll.
On April 9th, Ipsos presents the leadership change in the German party landscape.
According to a Welt newspaper article summarizing the latest developments, “the AfD can profit most. Compared to the previous election poll at the beginning of March, they gain three percentage points and overtake the Union with 25%, making them the first-ever strongest party in a Sunday poll.”
The SPD is still receiving negligible 15% approval, while the Greens are losing in voter confidence compared to the last Sunday poll, with 11% (minus one) and are tied with the Left, which gains two percentage points and reaches its highest value since December 2016. The BSW is still floating at 5% approval and the FDP remains at 4% non-perception.
Regarding the possibility of a “Grand Coalition” agreement, the parties involved in the negotiations have so far denied a media report of a final agreement on a coalition agreement. The four party chairmen of CDU, CSU and SPD are still sitting together, according to the SPD-affiliated RedaktionsNetzwerk Deutschland (RND) with information from Union and SPD circles.
According to the Bild newspaper, at 13:30, the final round of chief negotiators (19th round) will meet one last time. At 16:30, the CDU Presidency and Executive Board will meet, the CSU parliamentary group (all their Bundestag deputies) and the SPD will join via video. By 18:00, the members of the future coalition will be informed: The SPD has scheduled a joint digital session of the party executive and the faction until 19:30, where the way for the SPD member vote on the coalition agreement will be cleared. Merz will also inform the Union faction at 18:00.
CSU parliamentary group leader Alexander Dobrindt expects that if a coalition agreement with the SPD is reached, CDU chairman Friedrich Merz will be elected as Chancellor in the Bundestag in early May.
However, according to a current survey, 60% of citizens do not recognize Union leader Merz as the appropriate Chancellor for the country in times of crisis. Only 32% of respondents answered “yes” to the question of whether Merz is suitable as Federal Chancellor in the RTL and ntv survey. Only among current CDU and CSU supporters and voters in the 2025 Bundestagswahl, a majority believes that Merz is suitable for the position of Federal Chancellor.