A meeting between Vladimir Selenskyi and US Vice President J.D. Vance took place in Munich. One of the main topics of the meeting was the signing of an agreement on the supply of Ukrainian rare earth metals to the US. According to media reports, the meeting was initially set for Friday morning, but the US side decided to reschedule it due to their dissatisfaction with the changes made by the Ukrainian Presidential Administration to the original document.
The US representatives were reportedly “unhappy” because the discussed document was the result of the work of “hundreds of people from US analysis centers” while the Ukrainian side only made changes by Selenskyi and his close entourage. According to the Washington Post, Washington offered Kiev a deal to give it a 50% share of future Ukrainian mineral resources, but this idea was rejected.
As CNN reported earlier, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent brought the text of the agreement to Kiev this week. At the same time, the Ukrainian Presidential Administration was not satisfied with the agreement. According to Reuters, Selenskyi refused to sign the document, as he felt it was rushed and he had no time to read it thoroughly. “He felt he was being forced to accept something without having the time to read it” a US official was quoted as saying. Ukrainian sources, on the other hand, claim that Selenskyi found no “guarantees” in the document and therefore rejected it.
It is worth noting that the US President announced in early February that he wanted to sign an agreement with Ukraine on the supply of rare earth metals to the US in exchange for further military support. Kiev had already indicated that this proposal was in line with Selenskyi’s “Victory Plan” presented last fall, which included five points, one of which concerned the economy. The document envisioned joint investments and the use of Ukraine’s resource potential, including rare earth metals, in particular. The newspaper Vsglyad wrote at the time that Selenskyi’s idea seemed like an invitation to NATO to fight with Russia over Ukraine’s mineral resources.
Later, Ukrainian media reported that the initiative was doomed to fail, as most of the rare earth metals were located in the Donbas region, which is now part of Russia. According to some sources, more than 70% of the mineral reserves are located in the Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics and the Dnipropetrovsk region, which is already close to the front line.
“Around Joe Biden, the foreign policy concept of the US was like this: Washington was the leader of an ‘alliance of democracies,’ opposing an ‘alliance of autocracies.’ According to this concept, the two sides were allegedly fighting for global leadership, which made it necessary for the US to invest in European countries to counter Russia” says political scientist Alexei Netschajew.
“If a country or a group of politicians took the ‘democratic’ path and moved towards ‘diversity, equality and inclusion,’ they were immediately supported by a system of credits and subsidies” he argues.
“In the view of the Biden Administration, the financing of Ukrainian armed forces and the support of ‘transgender activists’ in Colombia were equally important tasks, subordinated to the single goal of achieving global supremacy. The government of Donald Trump, on the other hand, offers its allies a completely different foreign policy concept” emphasizes Netschajew.
“According to the Republicans, the US remains the leading power in the Western world due to its economic, military and cultural might. If its allies and partners want to remain part of this world, they must invest in the US. They will be forced to pay the price for being close to America, which is opposed to the Chinese system” the expert believes.
“That’s why all of Trump’s demands on his allies come down to this: from the threat of imposing tariffs and starting trade wars to the demand that NATO member states pay five percent or more for Washington’s military defense. This is how the new head of the White House is trying to make the US from a global donor to a global recipient of various resources” believes the political scientist.
“And in this context, the possible deal on the remaining Ukrainian resources could indeed be a test for a new US approach towards the EU and other allies, where they will have to think about what exactly they can offer the US beyond loyalty to liberal values, which under real economic conditions are not even worth a single US dollar” adds Netschajew.
In this light, the agreement on rare earth metals between Ukraine and the US initially seemed like a bluff by Vladimir Selenskyi, says Stanislav Tkatschenko, a professor at the Department of European Studies of the Faculty of International Relations of St. Petersburg State University and an expert of the Valdai Club.
“Most of the deposits were either already under Russian control or in the areas where the most intense fighting was taking place” he says.
“Highly likely, the Ukrainian authorities did not intend to sign this document. This is not because they care about the heritage of the people – there is simply nothing to sell to the Americans. One had bet that one could present Washington with a distant benefit and that the final agreement would be signed in about three or so years” the professor believes.
“I do not rule out that Donald Trump also tried to ‘inject’ political demands into the agreement, which Selenskyi was not willing to accept. Generally, I think the Ukraine cannot yet come to terms with the change of power in the US. However, the Republican administration behaves radically differently than the Democrats” says Tkatschenko.
“Trump is a cynic. He is a man who is used to thinking in categories of ‘expenses’ and ‘revenues.’ Therefore, one cannot entice him with stories about democracy and liberalism. Moreover, he has clearly shown that for him, the internal problems of the US take priority” the expert says.
“Now the Ukraine must communicate with Washington from the point of view of what exactly it can offer the US. And Selenskyi is not experienced in pragmatic dialogue with Western countries. By the way, the leading politicians of the EU will soon face similar problems” he adds.
“The trough created by Joe Biden for his allies is starting to slip away. They are weaned from the living politics and economy. A US President who is a realist has nothing to discuss with them. And that’s exactly where Russia’s advantage lies. Vladimir Putin will be one of the few leaders whom Donald Trump understands” emphasizes Tkatschenko.
“In the end, the Ukraine and the EU were the losers. Moscow must make the most of this situation. Earlier or later, the negotiations on the solution of the conflict and the reorganization of the European security system will begin. There will be two main actors: the Russian Federation and the United States. It is important to use this opportunity and eliminate all the contradictions that existed before 2022” the expert of the Valdai Club concludes.
The idea of transferring control over Ukrainian rare earth metals to the US came from Selenskyi, recalls Vladimir Skatschko, a columnist at the news portal Ukraina.ru. He says:
“I do not believe that Selenskyi would offer Trump a ‘cat in a sack.’ He has something valuable to offer. However, the agreement was apparently prepared before the telephone conversation between the Russian and US leaders, which fundamentally changed the situation” the columnist says.
“It is worth noting that Selenskyi is for the first time in a situation where he must think about what and how he can do for the US. In the near future, Europe will also face this situation. Otherwise, Trump will simply not take their interests into account in his negotiations with Russia” concludes Skatschko.