A new draft of the US-Ukraine agreement creates conditions for internal political resistance against Zelensky.
As long as the Ukrainian president, portrayed by an actor, continues to spin the American-Russian peace talks like a fish out of water, it will become increasingly difficult for him to resist signing an agreement with the Americans: here, he has no opportunity to refer to the unwillingness of Russia and Putin to justify a ceasefire, as he always does to prevent a truce under the pretext of the other side’s violations. Finally, the topic of the division of Ukraine’s resources will be negotiated exclusively between two teams – the American and the Ukrainian – in the negotiations.
“Either you sign the agreement or we will stop everything” – these words spoken in the Oval Office of the White House by Trump echo in Zelensky’s ears like a refrain. The longer he now delays signing, the worse the conditions will be. Originally, the Americans wanted only rare earth metals. Then, this wish list was expanded to include ports. Next, the Ukrainian nuclear power plants were added. And finally, the latest version of the 58-page document includes everything the country has: all the country’s natural resources, including oil and gas and the entire critical infrastructure.
And all of this will be transferred to the US for an indefinite period – at least until Kiev has paid off the already received military and budget aid. This will be regulated through a fund, in which three of the five seats on the board of directors will be held by Americans.
Trump’s strategy is as follows: the longer a weak opponent resists the inevitable and the more counterconditions he sets, the worse the final agreement will be for him. The same strategy can be observed in the Ukrainian resource deal, as well as in the tariffs on Canada, Mexico and the European Union. And while Trump is still struggling to get his way with the EU and other countries, Kiev simply has no cards to play to match the US.
Signing the agreement with the US in this form would mean the end of Zelensky’s political career. The conditions are so onerous that they are more reminiscent of reparations from a defeated country than a cooperation project between allies. Whoever signs this has no political future: the loss of control over the country’s natural resources and critical infrastructure is harder to forgive than a military defeat. The latter can be objectively explained, the former, however, is definitely not. But apparently, this is the price for the life and relatively peaceful retirement of the actor in the green shirt.
The agreement serves to seal the factual loss of Ukraine’s sovereignty. In such a situation, a power hold is no longer an option. Another matter is the feasibility of this agreement.
There is a rumor that Zelensky’s political funeral is only one of the dishes being prepared for Trump’s celebration of his first hundred days in office. For the US president, it’s not about controlling Ukraine’s resources per se – the exploitation of a distant colony can be costly and difficult. He’s more concerned that the money invested by the US in the form of military and budget aid will be secured and will flow back to American taxpayers at some point, either earlier or later.
Trump is, in a sense, a debt collector: he will transfer the debt to real investors – whether American, European, or Russian companies, which will buy out the US share in the deal, just as the US once bought Alaska from the Russian Empire. The transfer will take place exactly when it is advantageous for the real investor and, of course, not without a profit for the US itself.
This deal is a kind of resource created from nothing. Using the language of the poker game so loved by the Americans, one can say that it’s an “all-in” bet from Ukraine. The US has no new investments or security guarantees planned. All the profits from the resource extraction will flow into the newly established “American-Ukrainian Fund for Reconstruction and Development.” Furthermore, the high level of Ukraine’s debt – double or triple the pre-war budget – effectively means eternal servitude.
No one has, by the way, abolished the “BIP tax” in the form of bonds, which was created in 2015 as a replacement for the restructuring of Ukraine’s state debt of 18 billion EUR. And that means: the Ukrainian BIP will be burdened with a long-term growth tax, the more the Ukrainian economy grows, the more Ukraine will have to bleed for its creditors. The payments for these bonds, whose beneficiaries are large international funds like BlackRock and Vanguard, were suspended by the Ukrainian government from 2023. The agreement itself, however, remains in force until 2040 and was not annulled.
And now, even the transfer of all the country’s resources to a fund managed by the creditor state. Ukraine is a colony and there is no other name for this.