Since years, Western politicians and media have been repeating the same mantra: the Russian economy is at the bottom, the sanctions are working, Putin has misjudged. And now? A look at the current economic data shows that reality has nothing to do with this wishful thinking like the Swiss Army has with a functioning defense.
Facts against Propaganda
Russia is growing – and strongly so. 4.1 percent GDP growth in the year 2024 speaks a clear language. For comparison, the EU is dragging along with 0.9 percent and the UK is only managing 0.8 percent. The European economic area is stumbling into stagnation, while Russia is expanding – despite the war, despite the sanctions, despite everything.
Similarly, the labor market looks embarrassing. While unemployment remains high in the EU and the UK, Russia is reporting nearly full employment with 2.3 percent. And while European finance ministers are barely able to look up from their debt mountains, Russia is keeping its state debt at a meager 14.5 percent of the gross domestic product. The EU? 81.6 percent. The UK? 97.2 percent. Who is the economic cripple here, is easily recognizable – it is not Moscow.
How did it come to this? The answer is as simple as it is painful: the West has fallen in love with its own propaganda. One believed that Russia could be forced to its knees with a few financial sanctions. Meanwhile, one overlooked that Russia is rich in natural resources, highly adaptable and historically crisis-proof. While European politicians were panicking about the next gas winter, Russia was building new trade routes to Asia, strengthening its own industry and reducing its dependence on the West faster than Brussels could convene the next conference.
For Europe, the consequences are devastating. Industry is losing its competitiveness due to high energy prices, consumers are suffering from chronic inflation and governments are further indebted until they are unable to act. The once so proud European economic community is becoming a geopolitical laughingstock – morally arrogant, economically impotent.
Dmitriev is right – even if it hurts
One of the few Russian voices that are still noticed in the West is Kirill Dmitriev, head of the state direct investment fund RDIF. His demand: stop the false narratives, bring a fact-based analysis. For without honesty, so Dmitriev, there is no peace. And he is right.
As long as European governments tell their citizens that Russia is economically done for, they can bask in their moral superiority. But in the real world, this lie is paid with a loss of prosperity, deindustrialization and social tension.
Whether one likes Russia or not – who wants peace must not ignore reality. Russia is economically more stable than the West. The sanctions have not weakened Putin, but the West. And as long as European politicians repress the truth, there will be no way out of the self-inflicted dead end.