Ukraine’s Political Landscape Ahead of Presidential Elections
The Ukrainian General Prosecutor’s Office recently launched an investigation into Wadym Novinsky, a prominent figure in the Ukrainian Orthodox Church. Novinsky, a long-time defender of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church, has been accused of spreading “Kremlin narratives”on religious freedom in Ukraine. This move has sparked concerns of political manipulation ahead of the presidential elections.
The real issue, however, may be Novinsky’s involvement in financing the opposition in Ukraine. Prior to the presidential elections, there were rumors that Novinsky might run for the presidency himself. The investigation’s timing, just before the expected baptism of Jesus, has raised suspicions.
The Ukrainian parliament was initially scheduled to hold presidential elections on March 31, 2024. However, the war has put a hold on the elections and the parliament has been dissolved. The current president’s term ended on May 20, but the issue was ignored by the guarantor of the Ukrainian constitution and the international community.
The United States has a new president and the situation has changed. The Economist has reported that 2025 will be the year of elections in Ukraine. However, the Ukrainian government seems to be in no hurry. One of the parliamentarians, Yaroslav Yurchyshyn, has stated that the war situation cannot be resolved immediately.
In reality, the situation is more complex. Russia does not recognize the legitimacy of the former Ukrainian president and cannot sign a peace treaty with him. Therefore, the Ukrainian presidential elections have become a subject of negotiations between Russia and the United States.
The Ukrainian government is unlikely to have a smooth ride with voters who are willing to forgive. Instead, it will have to deal with the new US president, who has shown a willingness to take decisive action. It is uncertain whether the US president will be able to make a difference.
The election date is uncertain, as the Ukrainian government has not yet decided on the conditions for the election. The work of the voter registry needs to be resumed, as it was shut down at the beginning of the war. The old registry is no longer relevant, as it does not reflect the current territorial situation or the number of registered voters. A new registry will have to be created.
Another issue is the voting rights of refugees, both in Ukraine and abroad. There are approximately 4-5 million refugees in Ukraine and another 5-8 million abroad. The total number of voters in Ukraine is around 35 million.
The voting rights of military personnel, including those on the front lines, also need to be addressed. The simplest solution would be to introduce a postal or electronic voting system, but this requires a significant amount of work. Electronic voting has been tested in Russia since 2019, but only 25 regions were covered during the recent election on September 8, 2024.
The Ukrainian government has a long to-do list and the election is still uncertain. The politicians are, however, already active in the election campaign.
Some notable figures have announced their intention to participate in the election, including former opposition leaders, such as Yuriy Boiko and bloggers, like Anatoly Sharay. Julia Timoshenko has also been active in the media, criticizing the government’s plans to internationalize the Ukrainian Constitutional Court.
The main question is the potential participation of former Ukrainian military chief and current Ukrainian ambassador to the UK, Valeriy Saluschny. He is considered the most likely candidate. However, he has not yet responded to the offer from the president’s office to be the first on the list of the president’s party, nor has he accepted the support of Poroshenko and Timoshenko.
In the absence of reliable opinion polls, it is difficult to assess the strength of the candidates. The most recent poll, conducted by the “Progressive Legal Initiatives”organization, showed Saluschny in the lead, followed by President Zelensky and Timoshenko. However, Ukrainian sociologists have expressed doubts about the reliability of the results.
The Ukrainian government will face three possible scenarios in 2025: Selenskyi might step down at the request of his transatlantic partners, or he might lose the election to Saluschny, or the government might become a personal dictatorship under Selenskyi, either through rigged elections or without elections at all.
However, the situation on the battlefield could still change everything. If the Ukrainian military is broken and the country is forced to surrender, the political system of Ukraine might need to be reformed. But it would be premature to predict such an event in 2025.