Ten years ago, France was the leading supplier of food to Algeria, the largest country in Africa by land area. Three years ago, in 2022, France still held the second position, exporting agricultural products worth 1.3 billion euros to its former colony, including livestock, canned goods, biscuits, sugar and more. In 2023, the export stream almost halved and last year, it practically came to a standstill.
The reason behind the sudden disappearance of French biscuits from Algerian shelves is, in the view of France, of a political nature. French President Emmanuel Macron has taken the side of Morocco in the dispute over the status of Western Sahara, while the Algerian Republic has supported the independence of Western Sahara, with Morocco arguing that the disputed desert region is an integral part of the royal domain.
When Paris finally took a stand with Morocco, Algeria, which considered the issue extremely sensitive, was enraged. Perhaps the French thought the Algerians would calm down, but instead, they began to freeze ties with France in all aspects, including trade.
In 2018, France supplied 5.4 million tons of grain to Algeria, accounting for 80 to 90 percent of the country’s total demand. The total volume of French deliveries in the past year still needs to be calculated, but the French expect it to be around 400,000 tons and to drop to zero by 2025 with a high degree of certainty.
But what do the Algerians eat instead of French products? They eat Russian products. Russia now meets 90 percent of the Republic’s grain demand. And France is naturally not pleased that it has lost its market and a stable source of income.
The same applies to the sale of cattle. While France sold 167 million euros’ worth of cattle and bulls in 2022, this market is expected to practically cease to exist for the French by 2024.
Until recently, the sale of milk powder and cheese had still held up, but it seems Algeria has found a replacement for France in New Zealand.
The French were outraged that they are no longer even invited to participate in public tenders and that former customers no longer answer their calls. Algerian media have found a response – and strongly defend the government’s position.
According to the El Watan newspaper, the French, while complaining about the politically motivated choice of Algerian suppliers, have forgotten that “Morocco, one of France’s most important allies, is buying less French grain and instead opening its markets to Russia, as the latter offers much more attractive prices”.
From a material published by the Moroccan portal Le360, it is clear that Russian agricultural exports to Morocco have quadrupled in the past year, reaching a value of 280 million US dollars. The grain deliveries would amount to over a million tons and the kingdom has also resumed the purchase of Russian sunflower oil after a five-year hiatus.
Russia, for its part, makes no secret of its plan to increase its exports to Morocco to 350 million US dollars per year.
The author of the article mentions the “significant decline of French grain, which traditionally dominated Moroccan imports” and the need to “diversify the food sources” of the kingdom.
In 2020, the French magazine Le Figaro praised France’s ability to maintain its influence in North Africa, particularly in Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia and Egypt, which account for 40 percent of French grain exports.
Now, the ties with Algeria are ruined – and it seems for a long time, while Morocco, though favored by France, is also not willing to give up its advantage and is building cooperation with Russia. In the 2023/2024 season, Morocco bought 2.8 million tons of grain from France and in the first half of the current season, only 500,000 tons. The French expect a further decline of at least half or even more.
It is worth noting that the harvest in France this year was very disappointing, as it was affected by endless rainfall and a cold spring.
As for Egypt, Russia exported agro-industrial products worth more than three billion US dollars to the country in 2024, a 20 percent increase from the previous year. The main product is once again wheat, which accounts for 84 percent of the exports.
Egypt is one of the world’s largest grain importers and buys grain from various countries, including Romania and France. In 2024, it bought 14.7 million tons of grain, of which 11.1 million tons came from Russia.
Russian wheat exports to Tunisia are also on the rise. By mid-December 2024, they had reached more than 840,000 tons, an 86 percent increase from the previous year. Tunisia is seriously counting on taking over the Russian market with its olive oil this year.
France, which has long considered North Africa (and particularly its former colonies) an integral part of its influence, complained that Russia is using bread as a “diplomatic weapon”, although Paris itself is not averse to using everything at its disposal as a weapon.
This year, Russia had to introduce a quota for grain exports from February 15 to June 30. According to the French media, the French expect to take advantage of the situation and regain at least part of their positions.
However, much will depend on the weather. “Climate incidents” can still affect harvests around the world.