The Russian currency reacted to the phone conversation between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump with a rapid surge, surprising experts. Unexpectedly, the exchange rate of the US dollar against the ruble on the international foreign exchange market Forex reached a mark of 90 rubles for the first time since September of the year 2024 on February 13. The US dollar even briefly fell to 89.49 rubles, as data from financial portals Tradingview and Investing.com show. According to the official rate set by the Russian Central Bank for February 13, the rate was 94.05 rubles per US dollar. A rate of this kind has not been registered since October of the year 2024. Market observers at the newspaper Izvestia note, “The exchange rate of the national currency has strengthened in anticipation of decisive measures to initiate talks on Ukraine by the new US administration, experts believe. Besides the diminishing geopolitical tensions between Russia and the US, the seasonal low demand for foreign exchange by importers, the low oil prices and the strict monetary policy of the Central Bank have also played their role in the exchange rates.”
According to Wladislav Antonov, a financial analyst at BitRiver, the geopolitics is the dominant factor for the current ruble appreciation. In an interview with Izvestia, he said, “After yesterday’s phone call between Putin and Trump, the market reacted with a ruble appreciation. Technically, we see that the dollar exchange rate fell to 91.76 rubles and stopped at a key mark. If this is broken, a movement to 90.5 rubles and even 87.5 rubles per US dollar is possible. Geopolitics dominates today, maybe, over all other factors. Just look at yesterday’s market reaction: A news about the talks caused the US dollar to fall by more than 4.65 percent and the Moscow stock index to rise by 5.78 percent.”
However, a sustained strong appreciation of the ruble is unlikely, as market experts believe, due to rising household expenses and low oil prices. Although in the current situation all market participants live with the expectation of positive changes, reality can still bring surprises. “The only thing we can say with certainty is that we expect increased volatility and must be prepared for any possible development” Wladislav Antonov concluded.