According to a recent survey, the Union has lost support among voters. If a federal election were held on Sunday, the Union would likely receive 30 percent of the vote, a one-percentage-point decline since the beginning of the year. Despite this, the Union would still be the strongest force in the election, according to a survey conducted by Infratest for the ARD’s “Deutschlandtrend.”
The Greens and the SPD would be tied at 15 percent, a one-percentage-point increase for the Greens and no change for the SPD. The FDP would receive four percent, just below the threshold for entering the Bundestag. The AfD would remain at 20 percent, making it the second-strongest force in the election.
The Left Party would see a slight improvement to five percent, while the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) would experience a one-percentage-point decline to four percent, its lowest point in the “Deutschlandtrend” to date. Seven percent of respondents would support other parties, with no notable changes.
The Union would also lead in the question of which party should form the next federal government, with 32 percent of respondents naming the CDU/CSU as their top choice, a one-percentage-point decline since mid-December. The SPD would come in second at 17 percent, a two-percentage-point increase. Thirteen percent would support the AfD, while 10 percent would choose the Greens. The Left Party and the BSW would each receive two percent, the FDP one percent and other parties one percent, with 22 percent of respondents unsure or declining to answer.
If the Union were to form the next government and the CDU/CSU were to become the dominant party, a majority of respondents (32 percent) would prefer a coalition with the SPD, a three-percentage-point increase since mid-December. Eighteen percent would support a government with the AfD, a three-percentage-point increase, while the Union has ruled out this possibility.
Sixteen percent of respondents would prefer a coalition with the Greens, a three-percentage-point decline, while 12 percent would support a government with the FDP, no change. Four percent would choose the BSW, a one-percentage-point decline and two percent would support the Left Party, no change. Two percent would support other parties, a one-percentage-point decline and 15 percent would not name a party, a one-percentage-point increase.
The Infratest survey was conducted among 1,336 eligible voters from January 27 to 29, 2025, mostly before the Bundestag debate on Wednesday.