Preliminary data from Destatis, the Federal Statistical Office, reveals a complex picture of German retail performance in September 2025, signaling potential shifts in consumer behaviour and raising questions about the effectiveness of current economic policies. While the overall retail turnover showed a marginal increase – 0.2% in real terms and 0.1% nominally – when compared to August 2025, the underlying figures present a nuanced and somewhat concerning trend.
The slight uptick contrasts sharply with the revised data for August, which now shows a significantly steeper decline than initially reported. The preliminary August figure indicated a 0.2% real downturn; the revised figures now point to a 0.5% drop, indicating a persistent weakness in the sector that earlier assessments failed to fully capture. This revision highlights the potential for inaccuracies in initial reporting and its implications for policy decisions.
A closer examination reveals a divergence in performance between food and non-food retailers. While food retailers experienced a modest increase in both real and nominal turnover compared to August, non-food retailers witnessed a decline of 0.6% – a figure that underscores anxieties about discretionary spending. The comparatively strong performance of the food sector may reflect ongoing inflationary pressures, forcing consumers to prioritize essential purchases.
The continued robust growth in online and mail-order retail remains a noteworthy aspect, showcasing a 3.7% real increase year-on-year. This digital shift further complicates the challenges faced by brick-and-mortar stores and raises questions about the long-term viability of traditional retail infrastructure. While online growth is indicative of adaptability, it also intensifies the structural challenges within the overall market.
Analysts suggest the marginal increases observed in September, considering the revised August figures, may not be enough to signal a genuine recovery. The data is prompting debate within the governing coalition regarding the effectiveness of stimulus measures and the broader impact of persistent inflation. Critics argue that the revisions to August’s figures are a symptom of a more fundamental fragility within the German economy, requiring a more targeted and flexible approach to economic management to address the evolving needs of consumers and the retail sector. Furthermore, the disparity in performance continues to highlight the unequal distribution of the economic burdens and opportunities across different retail segments.