The German rail network is bracing for a significant influx of foreign competition, potentially reshaping the landscape of long-distance travel and posing critical questions about market access and national infrastructure strategy. Both Italian state railway company Ferrovie dello Stato (FS) and its rival, Italo, are reportedly planning substantial investments to enter the German high-speed rail market, signaling a potential challenge to Deutsche Bahn’s decades-long dominance.
Plans under consideration involve an investment upwards of a billion euros aimed at deploying 30 to 40 high-speed trains. Italo, in particular, is contemplating a timetable of hourly or bi-hourly connections within Germany, a move expected to generate approximately 1,000 direct new jobs. This ambition adds to the existing competitive pressure from Flixtrain, a subsidiary of Flixbus already active in the long-distance market.
While Italian authorities have declined to comment directly on the report, sources suggest the plans are advanced, with a wholly-owned German subsidiary already established and a formal application for an Eisenbahnverkehrsunternehmen (EVU) – a railway operating license – submitted in October. This signals a serious commitment to entering the German market.
The realization of these plans hinges crucially on securing long-term access to the rail network. Italo is demanding framework agreements, lasting 15 years, to provide the necessary planning certainty for its substantial investment. This demand highlights a fundamental political and regulatory challenge: balancing the need to foster competition and innovation with ensuring the long-term stability of the national rail infrastructure. The German government and the Bundesnetzagentur, the regulatory body responsible for rail access, must now navigate a delicate balancing act.
The potential entry of FS, through its subsidiary Netinera and the exploration of similar ventures by Trenitalia, further intensifies the anticipated disruption. Trenitalia is reportedly contemplating the deployment of around 50 high-speed trains, with CEO Stefano Donnarumma characterizing Germany as a “very important market” requiring further investigation. Notably, Donnarumma specifically referenced the appointment of Evelyn Palla, an Italian citizen, as the new CEO of Deutsche Bahn, suggesting a possible facilitation of future collaborations and potentially altering the dynamics of the relationship.
The influx of foreign operators forces a re-evaluation of Germany’s rail policy, raising questions about the future of domestic players and the potential impact on pricing, service quality and the overall utilization of the rail network. It also necessitates a critical appraisal of the framework conditions under which foreign companies can access and utilize Germany’s vital rail infrastructure.