Germany’s energy transition is showing signs of accelerating, but also revealing underlying complexities according to preliminary data released by the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis). Electricity generation in the third quarter of 2025 reached 98.3 billion kilowatt-hours, a 2.0 percent increase compared to the same period in 2024. While the headlines focus on renewable energy gains, a deeper analysis highlights potential vulnerabilities and policy challenges.
Renewable energy sources spearheaded the growth, rising by 3.0 percent and now accounting for a record 64.1 percent of domestically produced electricity. Wind power remains the dominant force, contributing 26.8 percent, a notable increase of 10.5 percent year-on-year. Solar power also saw a rise, increasing by 3.2 percent and representing the second-largest contributor at 24.1 percent. This surge in renewables is largely attributed to continued expansion and modernization of wind farms and photovoltaic installations.
However, the increasing reliance on intermittent renewable sources is driving a parallel increase in electricity generation from conventional energy carriers. Gas-fired power generation, in particular, rose by a significant 8.1 percent compared to the third quarter of 2024, now accounting for 12.0 percent of the domestic electricity supply. This uptick raises concerns among environmental groups who argue that the transition is not occurring at the pace originally envisioned and risks locking in fossil fuel dependency. Critics contend that insufficient investment in grid stabilization and energy storage technologies is forcing a continued reliance on gas to balance the fluctuating output of wind and solar.
While coal-fired power generation has been steadily declining – now representing 20.6 percent of domestic electricity – the continued presence and recent rise in gas power underscore a potential policy miscalculation. The government’s stated ambition to phase out coal entirely by 2038 is being scrutinized, with some economists suggesting the timeline is unrealistic given the current energy supply landscape.
Interestingly, Germany’s energy trade balance shifted considerably. Electricity imports plummeted by 11.9 percent to 20.7 billion kilowatt-hours, while exports increased by 5.9 percent to 12.5 billion kilowatt-hours. This dramatic reduction in import dependence and subsequent rise in exports reflects both the increased domestic renewable capacity and potentially, a degree of energy insecurity impacting neighboring nations. The resulting decrease in the trade surplus of 30.3 percent points to a potentially volatile geopolitical dynamic within the European energy market.
The data suggests a complex picture: Germany is undeniably progressing further down the path of renewable energy, but the transition’s pace and composition are prompting critical questions about the sustainability and resilience of the country’s energy infrastructure and the effectiveness of the current policy framework. Further investment in grid modernization and energy storage solutions, alongside a reassessment of the coal phase-out timeline, will be crucial to ensuring a truly secure and environmentally sound energy future.