A security and military expert, Erich Vad, is cautiously optimistic about the recent developments in the Ukraine conflict, in contrast to the prevailing views in politics and media. He believes that the real decision-makers are the Russian and American presidents, as the conflict is being fought on the back of Ukraine.
Vad notes that the Munich Security Conference, which started on Friday, is more about the Europeans’ response to US proposals rather than presenting a peace plan by the Trump administration. He predicts that the Americans will ultimately do their own thing, regardless of European opinions.
The expert attributes the Europeans’ feeling of being left out to their own lack of realistic political goals and strategic concepts. He suggests that the US is seeking a political solution in Ukraine, whereas the Europeans only provided weapons without a clear understanding of how to exit the conflict through negotiations.
Vad also criticizes the German government for not understanding the reality of the situation, citing the recent phone call between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin as an example of the US taking the lead. He believes that the US views European countries as client states, making it unlikely for the two to discuss on equal terms.
The expert also laments the fact that the conflict in Ukraine is a repeat of the US’s past failed wars, such as in Iraq, Afghanistan and Syria, which have led to significant destruction and migration to Europe.
Vad concludes that the conflict can only be ended through a real understanding of the military reality and the need for a peaceful solution. He believes that a Waffenstillstand is likely in the near future and that a lasting peace with Russia might be possible if the US no longer considers Ukraine a candidate for NATO membership.