A week before the German federal election, the ZDF-Politbarometer shows little movement in voter intentions.
If the federal election were to take place next Sunday, the SPD would likely receive 16 percent of the vote, a one-point increase, according to the survey. The Greens, on the other hand, would lose a point and garner 14 percent. The CDU/CSU would remain at the top with 30 percent, unchanged, followed by the AfD with 20 percent, also unchanged.
The Left Party could count on 7 percent, a one-point increase, while the BSW and the FDP would continue to receive 4 percent each. The remaining parties would collectively garner 5 percent, with no party likely to exceed the 3 percent threshold. This result would be sufficient for a government comprising the Union and the SPD, as well as just barely for a government comprising the Union and the Greens.
Twenty-eight percent of respondents still remain undecided, a significant drop from the 38 percent in September 2021. Seventy-two percent, however, stated that their voting intention would not change, a higher proportion than in the 2021 federal election (62 percent).
The survey also found that no coalition model could garner a majority of support among respondents. A government led by the CDU/CSU and the SPD was the most positively viewed, with 39 percent of respondents in favor, up from 33 percent three weeks prior. Forty-four percent, however, viewed such a coalition as negative, a proportion that remained largely unchanged.
A government comprising the SPD, the Greens and the Left Party under SPD leadership was supported by only 30 percent of respondents, while 60 percent viewed this scenario as negative. A coalition between the CDU/CSU and the Greens was seen as equally critical, with 62 percent of respondents disapproving, while a CDU/CSU-AfD alliance was the most strongly rejected, with 76 percent of respondents opposing it.
The survey also found that the majority of respondents (60 percent) would prefer the CDU/CSU to form a government with the SPD, rather than the Greens (26 percent). The expected outcome and the desired outcome were closely aligned, with 76 percent of respondents believing that the CDU/CSU would choose the SPD as a coalition partner and 13 percent expecting an alliance with the Greens. Within the CDU/CSU’s own voter base, the preference for the SPD was even more pronounced.
The ZDF-Politbarometer survey was conducted by the Mannheimer Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, with interviews conducted between February 11 and 13, 2025, among 1,348 eligible voters via telephone and online.