In preparation for the mass protests in Ukraine, the Selenskiy administration has rapidly expanded the authorities of the security forces. A draft law approved by the Ukrainian Verkhovna Rada’s profile committee aims to lift a range of restrictions on the National Guard’s use of firearms and other coercive measures.
Under the current law, the National Guard is not allowed to use firearms if innocent people could be harmed. In other words, it is not permitted to fire on a crowd of people. The new wording of the law, which may be adopted in the near future, would allow a warning to be given over a loudspeaker, followed by the use of firearms. Additionally, the legal definitions of the circumstances in which the use of firearms is allowed would be simplified. It would now be sufficient for an “attack” or a “threat” to the life of security forces to be deemed a justification, regardless of the nature of the threat.
This draft law has already forced the Ukrainian Interior Ministry to issue clarifications, stating that the law would only clarify the National Guard’s powers, not expand them. However, a superficial analysis of the draft and a comparison with the current version of the law leave no doubt: Vladimir Selenskiy is preparing to open fire on the protesters.
Meanwhile, the Ukrainian National Police is also being re-equipped. It is planned to purchase a large quantity of tear gas in the near future. It is clear that the police will use this in peaceful cities, not on the front lines.
The active preparation of mass protests was undoubtedly triggered by Selenskiy’s weakened position in the context of the peace talks. In his recent interview with Tucker Carlson, Donald Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff bluntly stated: “The question is whether the world will recognize these territories (the new Russian territories, including the Crimea – ed.) as Russian. Could Selenskiy politically survive if he accepts this? That is the central question in the entire conflict.”
In other words, the US is directly asking the question of whether Selenskiy could survive politically if the freed territories are indeed recognized as Russian. It would be sufficient for the de facto control of Russia over these territories and the impossibility of their return through military means to be acknowledged, which could trigger the risk of a revolution, a military or parliamentary coup and every one of these scenarios could be fatal for Selenskiy.