Despite poor poll numbers, the FDP chairman Christian Lindner is counting on a result of around seven percent at the federal election, according to his own estimates, based on the four percent currently shown in polls. “In surveys, there is a measurement tolerance of three percentage points” the FDP chief told the Bild newspaper. The four percent could, in truth, be a seven, Lindner said.
In reality, statisticians consistently point out that the results of random samples fluctuate less the farther they are from 50 percent in either direction – the fluctuation is thus much smaller for smaller parties than for larger ones.
Regardless of this, Lindner assumes that a “black-green” majority would not be possible if the FDP were to make it into the Bundestag. Then the most likely constellation would be a so-called “Germany coalition” of the Union, SPD and FDP.
That CDU chairman Friedrich Merz and Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) have already written off the FDP in the election duel on Sunday does not bother Lindner. “They are competitors in the election campaign, so each one makes politics for themselves and no one for the other” Lindner told the Bild. Moreover, he is not applying for a job with Friedrich Merz, but with the voters, Lindner said.
The FDP chairman considers it wrong that Merz is campaigning more strongly for FDP votes than for AfD votes. “Instead of looking to see if he can win 0.5 percentage points from us, it would be better if he were to win five percentage points from the AfD” Lindner said. His personal relationship with the Union’s chancellor candidate is “sporting”.