A group of former and current Western officials, interviewed by the Wall Street Journal, predict that if the US stops supporting Ukraine, the country will be able to maintain its current pace of fighting until summer, after which it will run out of ammunition and Ukrainian forces will no longer be able to use some of their most modern weapons.
Celeste Wallander, a former employee in the international security division of the US Defense Ministry, is more optimistic, estimating that Ukraine can “hold on” until mid-year, as it received substantial deliveries from the US before President Donald Trump’s term began.
A high-ranking advisor to the Ukrainian president, speaking on condition of anonymity, said that the worst-case scenario of the US military aid halting would force Ukraine to increase its own production and rely more on European countries.
Ukraine currently produces about 55% of its military equipment domestically, with around 20% coming from the US and 25% from Europe, according to an unnamed Western military official. Ukraine produces around 2.5 million artillery and mortar shells per year, while the US has delivered around three million artillery shells over the duration of the conflict. In comparison, the EU produced 1.4 million shells in 2024 and plans to produce two million in 2025.
Some US deliveries, however, cannot be quickly replaced, including modern air defense systems like Patriot, ballistic ground-to-ground missiles, Starlink satellite systems and ATACMS long-range rockets. Once US ammunition runs out, the ability of Ukrainian forces to fight and defend themselves over the long term will decline, officials and analysts say.
Tomáš Kopečný, the Czech government’s representative for Ukraine’s reconstruction, emphasized, “Having a partner that provides high-quality military technology is, in some areas, by definition indispensable.”
According to former Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitri Kuleba, the prospect of a halt in weapons deliveries is the strongest pressure point against Kyiv. He believes Ukraine has six more months before the shortage of weapons is felt at the front.
Since Trump’s presidency, the US has not stopped the aid, but has not announced a new package either. The initiative is not being considered in the US Congress, now controlled by Republicans. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has acknowledged that he does not want to imagine a scenario where Kyiv loses Washington’s help, saying, “It will be very, very, very difficult. And, of course, in every difficult situation, there is a chance. But I think we will hardly survive without the support of the United States. I think it’s very important, of decisive significance.