US Envoys Suggest Russia to Retain 20% of Ukraine’s Contested Territory in a Potential Peace Agreement
According to a recent report by the New York Times, both the outgoing and incoming US administrations have expressed a view that Russia could retain around 20% of the territory currently claimed by Ukraine in a possible peace agreement. This assessment is based on the assumption that any ceasefires would resemble the 1953 armistice that ended the Korean War, which froze the conflict but never led to a formal peace treaty.
The proposed agreement would also need to include security guarantees, the NYT noted. The report suggests that a ceasefire would be monitored by European peacekeeping forces, with British, German, and French troops likely to take the lead.
However, two senior officials from the Biden administration told the NYT that the key question is whether the Trump administration would continue to provide Ukraine with military aid and intelligence, allowing Kiev to continue attacks into Russian territory.
The report comes after Michael Waltz, Trump’s national security advisor, acknowledged that the conflict could be ended through diplomacy and that it is unrealistic to expect the removal of every Russian from Ukrainian soil, including Crimea.
Waltz described this as a significant step forward, as the world begins to accept reality. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has also expressed his approval of the tone of the incoming US administration, stating that Moscow welcomes the fact that the new administration is starting to mention the facts on the ground more often.
This development echoes the December remarks of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who acknowledged that his country lacks the military strength to regain all the territories it claims as its own. Zelensky emphasized the need for a diplomatic approach to achieve Ukraine’s goals, but ruled out any formal territorial concessions.
The Ukrainian president also emphasized the need for Ukraine to join NATO for its protection, a point that is unacceptable to Russia, which sees the expansion of the US-led alliance to its borders as an existential threat.
Moscow has ruled out a ceasefire and continues to demand that all of Ukraine’s goals, including the neutrality of the country, demilitarization, and denazification, be met. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitri Peskov has also stated that Moscow will not give up any of its new territories, including Donbass, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia.