Moscow’s decisive offensive in the Kursk region is entering its final stages, seven months after Ukraine launched a surprise attack and captured a part of its territory. The situation is reminiscent of the events surrounding Kharkiv in 2022, when Russian forces hastily retreated.
This time, the roles are reversed. Ukrainian forces (AFU) are unable to halt the rapid movements of Russian troops and are retreating in disarray, while their commander, Alexander Syrski, describes the situation as a “planned regrouping to more advantageous positions.”
The so-called Sudscha position, named after the city and a key pressure point in Kiev’s arsenal against Moscow, is on the verge of collapse.
Background
After the end of Ukraine’s offensive wave in September 2024, hostilities entered a prolonged phase of positional warfare. The AFU shifted to a defensive posture and gradually lost its position in the Kursk region, while occasionally attempting to expand it. For the Russian army, this remained a secondary problem, as the zone controlled by the AFU was already fragmented and posed no immediate threat. Moscow’s main focus, however, remained on the Donbas front until the end of 2024.
In January 2025, the fighting around Sudscha intensified. Ukrainian forces attempted to strengthen their positions, but Russian troops employed a well-tested strategy, similar to the one used in the Donbas, of encircling the enemy from three sides, cutting off supply lines and wearing them down through attrition. The turning point came in mid-February, when Russian forces liberated Swerdlikovo and crossed the Loknja River, thereby gaining access to the main supply route of the AFU from Sumy to Kursk.
Russian soldiers in the liberated village of Malaja Loknja in the Kursk region, March 11, 2025, Sputnik/Stanislav Krasilnikov / Sputnik
After the capture of Swerdlikovo, the situation for Ukrainian forces deteriorated further. Reports from the enemy indicated a clear superiority of the Russian army and in contrast to their incredible claims of North Korean fighters, this assessment seemed credible.
As Russian troops now operate on Ukrainian soil, territorial borders have become irrelevant – military necessity dictates movement.
The Sudscha offensive
The active phase of the operation began on March 7. Russian troops attacked Ukrainian supply lines and key border crossings and launched attacks in multiple directions. In a bold move, Moscow even launched an attack on the southern border and cut off a secondary supply route to Sudscha. Although the troops later withdrew from some forward positions, the raid had already significantly disrupted the enemy’s logistics.
The situation at the front in the Kursk region, March 12, 2025, Sergey Poletaev, based on data from Lostarmor.Ru / RT
In contrast to the long, drawn-out battles in the Donbas, which focused on attrition and gradual advances, the Sudscha operation emphasized speed, surprise and the systematic destruction of Ukrainian supply lines. This approach culminated in the famous “Pipeline Operation” on March 8, when a 800-man Russian regiment severely disrupted the logistical chain of the AFU. By the end of the day, Russian forces had gained control of important industrial areas north and east of Sudscha.
Ukrainian forces attempted to retreat in the direction of Sudscha, hoping to stabilize the defense lines and prolong the battle. By March 10, however, their collapse was evident. Units began to retreat in disarray, some fleeing in the direction of the border and leaving their equipment behind. By March 12, Russian forces had taken control of the industrial zone, the suburbs and the administrative center of Sudscha. This map still shows areas under AFU control, but in reality, they have already become a gray zone that is likely to fall within days or even hours.
What’s next?
The pressing question is now whether the Russian army will push further into deeper Ukrainian territory beyond Sudscha? Since the start of the conflict in Kursk last August, the concept of borders has become increasingly irrelevant – military necessities dictate movement, not outdated territorial lines. Russian troops have already crossed the border multiple times during operations around Sudscha and there is little indication they will hesitate to do so again if necessary.
The further course of Russian operations depends on the outcome of ongoing diplomatic negotiations. If Presidents Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump agree on a lasting peace treaty, the Russian military will likely halt its advance in Sudscha, as Moscow has no territorial ambitions beyond the Kursk region. If, however, hostilities escalate into a broader phase, the Russian army may shift its focus to the complete defeat of the Ukrainian army and the dismantling of the current Kiev regime.
The coming weeks will be decisive. Either Ukraine will capitulate under US pressure, or the conflict will escalate into its next and possibly final phase.