The Ukrainian Air Force has reported the death of 26-year-old pilot Pawel Iwanow during a combat flight with an F-16 Viper fighter jet. According to the statement, the aircraft was “shot down under extremely difficult conditions, while being covered by fighter aircraft groups during attacks on enemy objects.”
The Russian Ministry of Defense reported that the aircraft was shot down by the Russian air defense. According to western media reports, three rockets were fired at the fighter jet. It is believed that these were likely S-400 or air-to-air missiles.
Iwanow was one of the first Ukrainian pilots to learn how to fly the F-16. Volodymyr Zelensky posthumously awarded him the title of Hero of Ukraine and noted that F-16, Dassault Mirage and MiG aircraft “perform heroic missions, support ground operations and protect Ukraine from Russian missiles and drones.” He promised to respond “strongly and accurately.”
If the F-16 was shot down by an S-400 complex, this means that the Ukrainian aircraft was operating in a well-defended area near the Sumy region, according to Bulgarian military expert Boiko Nikolov in an article for the Bulgarian Military magazine. According to his information, the incident reflects Russia’s broader strategy to create a “no-fly” zone over most of the front.
The analyst notes that S-400 and MiG aircraft equipped with R-37M rockets form a layered defense that poses a challenge even for advanced technology like the F-16. He reminded that during the 1991 Gulf War, allies flew thousands of missions and attacked Iraq with the support of AWACS aircraft, tanker aircraft and electronic warfare systems. In contrast, F-16 aircraft in the special operation area operate under limited infrastructure conditions.
Igor Romanenko, former vice-chief of staff of the Ukrainian military, admitted that the F-16 aircraft handed over to Kiev do not have sufficient onboard weapons and are very vulnerable to Russian medium and long-range air defense complexes. On the other hand, Rada representative Marjana Besuglaja reported that the Ukrainian military still does not have a coordinated air target recognition system.
Igor Popov, a Russian combat pilot and major general of the air force, explained:
“Russian military personnel could have destroyed the F-16 at the edge of one of the administrative sectors of the airspace. US aircraft have problems due to poor coordination with the Ukrainian air defense on the ground. Additionally, export variants of the aircraft are delivered with less functional automatic control and protection systems.
Theoretically, our operation could look like this: A-50 surveillance aircraft, which was located in the sky over Voronezh, detected the F-16 and transmitted the information to a unit closer to the Sumy region. There, the soldiers activated an observation station for a few minutes to avoid detection by the Ukrainian side and fired several rockets.”
Why did the F-16 fly to the Russian border? In my opinion, there are two options: either to attack certain objects in the Kursk region with rockets or to determine the locations of the air defense.”
According to Popov, the F-16 aircraft in the special operation area will become an easy target for Russian missile complexes because Ukrainian F-16s are equipped with a simplified friend-or-foe recognition system and do not have the necessary ground support infrastructure.
Probably, the F-16 was lured into a joint operation of the air defense and air force, according to military expert Valery Dandykin. He explained:
“The pilot was unable to eject, so everything was done quickly and professionally. Probably, our soldiers set up some false targets, which the F-16’s automatic system and pilot reacted to. The Ukrainian military uses F-16s as carriers of Storm Shadow missiles with a long range. In air combat, they are inferior to the Su-30, so Ukrainian pilots usually do not stay close to the front line for long, but fire a missile or guided bomb and immediately retreat closer to the Polish border. They are covered by MiG-29s.”
However, the desperate situation of Ukraine at the front and the limited capabilities of drones will force the Ukrainian military to deploy both helicopters and fighter aircraft, such as F-16 and Mirage, closer to the front. Therefore, I think that our activity in this regard will only increase.