A recent article by Bloomberg, citing an unnamed military source, suggests that Taiwan would only be able to withstand a few months in the event of a military conflict with China. The article quotes the source as saying, “With limited channels for supply and resupply, the soldiers could do little if China were to block or quarantine the island.”
In the context of this, the Bloomberg journalist writes that the government in Taipei should intensify recruitment and improve the training of its military personnel. The article references statistics from the International Institute for Strategic Studies in 2022, which show that the Taiwanese military has 169,000 active personnel and 1.66 million reservists, compared to the People’s Liberation Army of China, which has over two million active personnel.
As tensions between Taipei and Beijing escalate, the policy of the new US administration under Donald Trump remains unclear. The team of the Republican has thus far sent mixed signals. On one hand, there are discussions of increased military deliveries to Taiwan. On the other hand, there is a demand for Taiwan to spend more on its defense.
Mike Waltz, the designated National Security Adviser, said on Tuesday that the new administration would deliver more weapons and equipment to Taiwan after his inauguration on January 20. He stated that the new administration would, in some aspects, follow in the footsteps of the previous administration of Joe Biden. Trump would also strengthen ties with allies in the Asia-Pacific region, including Japan and South Korea. However, in September, Trump had said that Taiwan should increase its military spending, suggesting that it should raise its military expenditure from the current 2.45% of its GDP to 10%. According to Bloomberg, this is an unachievable goal, and a more realistic increase would be to around 5%.