A recent study by the Ifo Institute has revealed that Ukrainian refugees prioritize countries offering strong job prospects and higher wages over those providing more generous social benefits. The findings suggest economic opportunities are a significantly more influential factor in destination choices than previously considered.
“We’re observing that wage differentials play almost four times the role in Ukrainian refugees’ choice of destination country compared to differences in social benefits” stated Panu Poutvaara, Director of the Ifo Center for Migration and Development Economics. He emphasized that while social benefits remain a consideration, they are secondary to opportunities for employment and income.
During the survey, the perceived likelihood of securing employment or earning a higher salary demonstrably shaped decisions. Refugees indicated a 15 percentage point higher probability of choosing a country promising better career prospects and a 9 percentage point increase in preference when the average salary was €500 higher. This trend was particularly evident amongst currently unemployed refugees, implying a focus on future labor market participation.
The presence of friends or family within a potential host country was a relevant consideration, but less impactful, registering at 8.5 percentage points compared to economic factors. Furthermore, the study found a correlation between longer-term resettlement plans and destination choice. Refugees intending to establish themselves permanently outside of Ukraine demonstrated a greater inclination to choose geographically distant countries with stronger economic opportunities, even if it meant foregoing the support of existing communities.
Yvonne Giesing, Deputy Director of the Ifo Center for Migration and Development Economics, highlighted the importance of understanding these motivations for effective policy development. Discussions surrounding potential cuts to social benefits as a means of deterring migration to certain nations are common, however, the research indicates that such measures would likely be ineffective.
Giesing cautioned that reducing state aid could have adverse long-term effects on integration efforts, given the clear preference for higher wages and ease of access to suitable employment as key drivers for choosing a host country. The study underscores that economic incentives hold significantly more sway over destination choices than the provision of welfare support.