A former chairman of the now-dissolved German-Iranian parliamentary group in the German Bundestag, Bijan Djir-Sarai, believes the chances of a regime change in Iran are much better than in other countries where civil societies were unable to build a democracy during the Arab Spring.
Djir-Sarai, a member of the Free Democratic Party, made the remarks to the TV channel Welt, saying the Iranian civil society is highly developed, with a young and well-educated generation. “The chances of achieving a real democracy in Iran, after the mullahs are gone, are indeed given” he stated.
Iran has various groups, such as a strong environmental movement and a very strong women’s movement, he added. “Furthermore, there is also a strong exil-community with different actors who bring democratic experience” Djir-Sarai said. “Ultimately, the Iranians, if the current mullah regime collapses, will then be asked to shape the future of their country together.”
Regarding the military capabilities of Iran, Djir-Sarai questioned whether the regime in Tehran can still effectively respond to Israeli attacks, given that the country has lost many resources in recent hours and days. He also noted that Iran’s military capabilities are not as good as previously assumed, but the regime’s basic structures will continue to function, allowing it to suppress the population and try to buy time by playing the card of nuclear negotiations.
Djir-Sarai does not believe in a European negotiation success at the upcoming E3 talks in Geneva, as he thinks the US administration and the Israeli leadership will mainly decide the outcome. “The Europeans have always held on to the nuclear agreement in the past few years” he said, calling this a strategic mistake after the US withdrawal. “The Israelis have always said the nuclear agreement is a mistake. Even the Arab world has said the nuclear agreement is a mistake and that will only make the Iranian republic or the Islamic Republic stronger” Djir-Sarai stated.
As a native of Tehran, Djir-Sarai is deeply concerned about friends and family in Iran, with whom he remains in almost daily contact. “They can’t tell much because they’re also afraid of the Iranian secret service” he said, noting that fear and hope are present in Iran.