A leading nuclear expert, Jim Walsh, has expressed concerns that Israel’s recent attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities may prompt the Iranian regime to accelerate its nuclear weapons program. According to Walsh, the likelihood of a nuclear war between Israel and Iran has significantly increased, although it may not happen in the immediate future, but potentially in the next five to ten years.
Walsh, a renowned expert on Iran’s nuclear program, believes that Iran has already overcome the technical hurdles to building nuclear weapons, having made significant progress in producing highly enriched, weapon-grade uranium a decade to 15 years ago. The missing element was the political decision by the Iranian leadership to proceed with the program.
Walsh fears that the Iranian leadership, facing a lack of options to respond to the recent humiliation, may opt for the nuclear route to restore national security. He notes that the alleged damage to the Natanz facility, where thousands of centrifuges were used for uranium enrichment, would likely have little impact on Iran’s nuclear capabilities.
While Israel may be able to destroy centrifuges, it would be difficult to erase the blueprints and knowledge from the minds of Iranian engineers, according to Walsh. Moreover, the fate of the underground Fordo facility, which, according to Walsh, has been minimally damaged, remains uncertain, as Israel is likely to lack the heavy bunker-buster bombs required to target it effectively.
Furthermore, the assassination of at least nine leading nuclear scientists will not necessarily halt the Iranian nuclear program, as the knowledge and expertise have already been disseminated among the Iranian nuclear community over the past decade, Walsh argues. Since at least 2015, the researchers and engineers have had access to the entire process, including the high-enrichment of uranium and this knowledge is likely to have spread widely among the Iranian nuclear experts in the past ten years.