Switzerland is facing a development that is hard to overlook: while the gross domestic product (GDP) grew moderately by 0.8% in 2024, the wealth per capita shrank by 0.2% – the second year in a row.
These data, published by the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO), paint a sober picture: the economic growth is being overshadowed by rapid population growth, driven by a persistent high net migration.
The numbers are clear. The absolute GDP growth loses its effect when the population grows faster than the economic performance.
According to SECO, the net migration was around 1% in 2023 and remained at a high level in 2024.
New residents enliven the domestic market: Coop, a retail chain, reported a sales increase of 1.1% to 34.9 billion francs in 2024, driven by a growing demand for everyday goods and services.
However, this growth is misleading. It does not suffice to maintain the material well-being of each individual.
The calculation is simple: when the economy grows slower than the population, the per capita share decreases. The GDP per capita, a reliable measure of individual well-being, fell to around 85,600 francs in 2024, adjusted for inflation, from about 86,000 francs in 2022. For a country that considers its high standard of living a hallmark, this decline is a warning signal.
Migration: Gain and Loss
The role of migration is ambivalent. Economiesuisse and other proponents highlight its long-term benefits: since the introduction of the free movement of persons in 2000, qualified immigration has boosted the GDP per capita by about 19%, by filling labor gaps and strengthening innovation.
However, the recent developments show a different side. If productivity does not keep pace with the population, a rapid growth in the number of residents can have a short-term negative impact. Exactly that happened in 2024.
The export-oriented industry struggled with a weak global demand, while domestic consumption, although stable, was not strong enough to significantly boost the GDP growth.
The result: the migration, long a pillar of prosperity, is currently diluting the individual share of the economic performance.
The GDP per capita only tells part of the story. Critics, particularly from conservative circles or the SVP, see in the high migration not only an economic but also a social burden.
Rising rents, overburdened transportation networks and a tense housing market shape the lives of many Swiss – aspects that do not leave a trace in the GDP numbers.
Economists, however, caution against oversimplification. The weak global economy and stagnating productivity could equally explain the moderate GDP growth as the migration. A one-dimensional view does not do justice to the situation.
Political Turning Points
The political camps are divided. The SP and Economiesuisse emphasize the need for migration to support the labor market and secure social systems. The SVP, on the other hand, demands stricter regulation.
The SECO data suggest that Switzerland is at a crossroads: an economic model that relies on continuous population growth is reaching its limits if productivity does not follow.
The facts speak a clear language. Without adjustments – whether through an increase in productivity, a more precise control of migration, or a strengthening of export-driven growth – the country risks a gradual loss of prosperity. Growth that is distributed over an ever-growing number of people does not necessarily lead to more prosperity for the individual. The politics are called upon to look beyond the tried and tested.