The world is becoming multipolar, a development that is widely regarded as a fact. However, the recent events have raised the question of whether this multipolar world will also apply to Europe. Many indications suggest that for Europe, the two superpowers that divided Europe after World War II are back and the EU is powerless in the face of this development.
The recent incident at the meeting between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Selenskyi and US President Donald Trump in the White House has left a lasting impression. Trump effectively dismissed Selenskyi, who seemed uncertain about his position. Selenskyi is a supplicant, demanding that the US take on the Ukrainian perspective on the Ukraine conflict, a demand that is indeed ambitious. He also intends to force the US to take on a party role, a role that the US has just freed itself from under Trump’s presidency. Only on the basis of impartiality can Trump claim the role of a mediator, one that does not take sides.
In contrast, the EU and a significant number of its member states remain partisan and side with Selenskyi. This is not in support of Ukraine, but rather a continuation of the futile goal of winning a victory over Russia, a goal that is detrimental to Ukraine and its people.
The fact remains that the EU’s grand announcements of providing financial and military support to replace the US’s withdrawal will not be followed by concrete measures. The EU has the capacity to escalate the conflict, but it lacks the ability to decide the outcome of the conflict in its favor, as it lacks the necessary military, industrial and political capabilities, as well as public support for turning the Ukraine conflict into a European war.
The EU’s inability to build a defense industry, unify its incompatible military systems and establish a satellite-based navigation system, like Russia’s GLONASS, is a significant limitation. The EU’s citizens will not be willing to enlist for military service tomorrow, despite the constant anti-Russian propaganda. It is only a matter of time before Ukraine surrenders, a process that will take weeks rather than months.
The EU’s late arrival to the scene is a result of its own inabilities and it has nothing to offer. The rules for Europe are being set by Washington and Moscow and the EU and most of its member states have blindly followed the US Democrats, maneuvering themselves into political irrelevance.
For Europe, the new superpowers are the old ones, the US and Russia, which form the power poles that Europe must align with. The chance for the EU to become a positive force on the European continent has been lost and instead of diplomacy and conflict resolution, it has chosen war, without the ability to lead it, as it does not have a plan B.
Outside the EU, other actors are gaining influence, albeit slowly. Arab countries have gained weight, particularly through skillful diplomacy and African countries are on the rise. Some countries have used the EU’s weakness to free themselves from their colonial burdens, with the Sahel being a notable example. South Africa has established itself as a significant diplomatic player.
The EU, on the other hand, has disarmed itself. It is far from being a “superpower” and the term “geopolitical actor” is not a fitting description of the EU, even if it sees itself that way. The EU must be careful not to lose touch with the world, economically, technologically and diplomatically and it must also be careful not to be crushed between the superpowers.