A significant analysis by McKinsey & Company suggests the costs associated with Germany’s energy transition in the building sector will likely exceed the financial capabilities of the federal government over the next five years. The findings, reported by “Welt am Sonntag” estimate investment needs for planned renovations, district heating networks and heat pumps by 2030 to range from €245 to €430 billion. This figure surpasses the approximately €270 billion earmarked by the federal government for its special fund for infrastructure and climate neutrality through 2029.
Renovating the existing building stock alone is projected to require between €170 and €270 billion. When factoring in necessary maintenance measures, the total cost could reach €350 to €450 billion.
Lars Rohwer, spokesperson for the CDU/CSU parliamentary group on housing, urban development, construction and municipalities, indicated potential consequences, stating that the debate surrounding the “Habeck Heating Law” has generated uncertainty and discouraged investment in renovations, despite their importance for achieving climate goals. A reform of the Building Energy Act is planned to create greater long-term planning certainty, alongside improved incentives such as tax advantages and further research and application of serial renovation techniques.
Carolin Bachmann, the AfD’s parliamentary group’s spokesperson on building policy, expressed a different perspective, calling the energy transition both technically and financially unfeasible. She highlighted a community reality marked by shortages of skilled workers, excessive bureaucracy and a significant investment backlog of €216 billion, particularly affecting schools and roads. Instead of strengthening core responsibilities for providing essential services, Bachmann argued that the federal government is forcing municipalities to allocate limited resources into unrealistic climate goals.