The prospect of a lasting peace between Israel and the Palestinians remains distant, significantly hampered by Hamas’s continued refusal to disarm, according to security expert Carlo Masala. While acknowledging that the militant group has been militarily weakened, Masala cautioned against complacency, emphasizing its capacity to pose a persistent tactical threat.
Speaking to the “Im Krisenmodus” podcast produced by the Funke-Mediengruppe, Masala estimates Hamas maintains a fighting force of 10,000 to 13,000 operatives within the Gaza Strip. He asserts that the group will likely attempt to maintain control through acts of terror and intimidation, retaining the capability to launch attacks, including the deployment of rockets such as Katyushas.
Masala’s assessment carries significant political implications, particularly regarding the role of regional actors. He argued that Qatar and Turkey, key supporters of Hamas, must face consequences for their continued backing if the group is to be prevented from reasserting authority in Gaza. That would require “turning off the money tap” and expelling Hamas leadership currently residing in those countries, a measure he deems necessary for any progress.
Furthermore, Masala stressed Germany’s responsibility in the rebuilding process. He advocated for the establishment of a technocratic government – one devoid of involvement from either Hamas or Fatah – as a prerequisite for any German financial contribution. Diverting funds without this foundational element, he warned, risks repeating past failures where money has been misappropriated and ultimately bolstered organizations like Hamas.
This perspective highlights a more forceful approach required from German foreign policy, suggesting a shift in mindset is urgently needed. Failure to address the root causes of instability and to enforce accountability among Hamas’s sponsors risks perpetuating the cycle of conflict and undermining any hope for a durable solution. The potential for a devastating recurrence of past errors remains high without a fundamental change in strategy and a commitment to more stringent conditions for aid and engagement.