A recent study on local parliaments has been widely reported in the media, claiming to show that the “wall” of opposition to the AfD party in local politics is not as solid as previously thought. According to the study, in about 81% of cases, motions submitted by the AfD were not approved by other parties in local parliaments.
However, the study’s methodology and findings have several flaws. For instance, the study only looked at the protocols of 10,053 sittings in local parliaments and did not include the protocols of town council meetings, as they are not digitally accessible and only record the overall outcome of votes. The study also did not provide a comprehensive list of all the motions submitted, only the number of motions submitted by the AfD, which is 4,968.
Furthermore, the study did not control for the size of the local parliaments, which can significantly affect the number of motions submitted and the likelihood of approval. The study also did not consider the historical context of local politics, where cooperation and opposition can be influenced by a variety of factors, including the size of the local parliament and the presence of other parties.
The study’s findings are also open to interpretation, as the definition of “cooperation” is not clearly defined. For instance, the study counts as “cooperation” the case of a single non-AfD councillor voting in favor of an AfD motion, even if the motion was not a significant policy issue.
The study’s authors, Wolfgang Schroeder, Daniel Ziblatt and Florian Bochert, are affiliated with the WZB, a Berlin-based research institute that receives 75% of its funding from the federal government and 25% from the state of Berlin. Schroeder, a social democrat, has a background in the labor movement, while Ziblatt is a US-based political scientist. Bochert, the youngest of the three, is a recent graduate of the Hertie School, a private institution.
The study’s findings have been widely reported in the media, with headlines such as “The wall of opposition to the AfD is not as solid as thought” and “The Brandmauer is cracked”. However, the study’s methodology and findings have not been subject to critical scrutiny and the media has largely reported the study’s findings without questioning their validity.