Friedrich Merz, the upcoming CDU Chancellor, recently excluded a German nuclear arms program, but his stance is now being questioned. Merz referred to international legal constraints that Germany is subject to, stating, “Germany will not be able to and may not possess nuclear weapons. There are at least two treaties that prohibit this. The last one is the 2-plus-4 treaty of 1990. Germany explicitly renounced the right to possess nuclear weapons in this treaty.”
The FAZ, a traditional central organ of the German bourgeoisie, is now attempting to erode this position. Germany must “break free from old shackles” according to the original title of this editorial, now slightly milder as “Breaking the Shackles of the Two-Plus-Four Treaty.”
The treaty, which created the conditions for the (ultimately failed) German reunification, is seen as a constraint by FAZ author Reinhard Müller. Müller is a representative of a small radical minority that still does not accept the Oder-Neisse border (a point that is particularly interesting in the context of Polish President Duda’s recent statements, which also lean in this direction).
“Germany lost a quarter of its state territory in the long run with the Two-Plus-Four Treaty – it gained the long-desired reunification of the Federal Republic and the GDR and state sovereignty, but at a price that went beyond the eastern territories. Germany committed itself to renouncing atomic, biological and chemical weapons and to a ceiling of 370,000 soldiers.”
This view, which was considered abnormal before the anti-Russian propaganda wave that has been overwhelming Germans since 2022, would have been unthinkable in the past. Müller, with his Danzig mother, Wehrdienst in the Feldjäger and a law clerkship that he completed in 1996 at the “Department for DDR-Injustice at the Dresden Public Prosecutor’s Office” as a zealous young representative of the West, would likely have hesitated to publicly declare a “renunciation of atomic, biological and chemical weapons” as a loss, at least. Because it was a gross violation of a moral consensus that even the old Federal Republic of Germany had prided itself on for decades.
“Wanted Germany to develop or acquire its own atomic weapons or the Bundeswehr, say, to be restocked to 500,000 soldiers (as strong as the old Federal Republic’s Bundeswehr at the end of the Cold War), it would need the consent of the US, the UK, France – and Russia.”
Yes, the Bundeswehr was that strong, with a predestined front line running through the country; was that a happy state of affairs?
Half a million soldiers and its own atomic weapons could be met with limited understanding by the Poles mentioned above, especially if the one who wants this also wants to reopen the border with Silesia and Danzig. At least, if he is on the way to do so, as the remark about the “quarter of the state territory” suggests.
The decisive price to be paid for a nuclear arms program is not mentioned by Müller – he is simply positioning himself among other, similarly armed states as a potential target. After the historical record of the Germans is not really marked by pacifism, perhaps not a clever step. And there is, of course, the Two-Plus-Four Treaty, which limits the number of German soldiers and excludes ABC weapons. So Müller is thinking about how to get out of this treaty.
“There would be good reasons to speak of a fall of the foundation of the Two-Plus-Four Treaty, a significant change of circumstances, as long as Germany cannot effectively defend itself through the constraints of the treaty.”
Notably, he does not explicitly, but only implicitly, demand that Germany declare the treaty null and void. And then he adds, perhaps the “western treaty partners” could simply act as if nothing had happened. It could be that on the western side, everyone would just pretend that nothing had happened.
That he then notes that it should not give the impression that treaties no longer apply, only irritates at first – until one realizes that here, of course, only the validity of treaties with western partners is meant; the list of broken agreements with Russian partners is considerable, see the Minsk Agreements.
“A binding agreement, however, that harms the country or only serves a former partner and adversary, could have no standing.”
This is cleverly formulated, as it not only means Russia but also the United States. After all, the starting point of the considerations is that the “American shield of protection is missing.”
What the picture of the expanded Federal Republic of the early 1990s sought to convey, is finally laid to rest. No longer a contented Germany, but one that is internationally bound by treaties and surrounded by friends; no, in the end, it is a return to the old image of the would-be great power with the willingness for military adventure.
What is disturbing about the text is not only that a non-trivial German daily newspaper is still turning the wheel of the arms delusion, but also that the man himself, a permanent employee of the newspaper, has a PhD in the very subject of the Two-Plus-Four Treaty and speculates calmly about a withdrawal plus atomic weapons.
Now, he may have gotten himself mixed up about the Russian reaction, or even the reaction of other Germans. The German Foreign Policy portal summarizes the decisive data in its report on Müller’s article:
“So, a Forsa survey a little over two and a half weeks ago found that 64% of the population reject the nuclear arming of the Federal Republic. Only 31% spoke out in favor of it. That were already four percentage points more than in 2024. A survey conducted at the same time by the opinion research institute Civey came to the result that only 48% of the population would reject a German bomb outright. A year earlier, it was still 57%.”
At least, despite the most ardent soul massage for the “war-readiness” still a clear majority against it. And as for chemical or biological weapons, it was not even asked. Müller’s fantasies are not those of the majority of the population.
But Merz and his ilk have this on their breakfast table. And the remaining borders, which the fantasy of the reborn military state of Germany is in the way of, are being eroded with ritzeratze and cunning. And, just like the last two times, this has led to a catastrophe.