The International Energy Agency (IEA) has released a report titled “A New Era for Nuclear Power” which highlights the growing interest in nuclear energy worldwide. This interest is not only increasing but also surpassing the levels seen since the 1970s oil crisis. It is essential to note that the IEA is not to be confused with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), with Russia not being a member of the IEA, unlike China, which is an associated country.
According to the report, over 92% of the world’s currently operating and newly built nuclear power plants rely on Russian or Chinese technology. The report states, “Currently, the revival of nuclear power is heavily dependent on Chinese and Russian technology. Of the 52 reactors that have started construction since 2017, 25 are in China and 23 are in Russia.”
The report also serves as a warning to Western nations, as it highlights the “concentrated markets for nuclear technology, uranium production, and enrichment, which pose a risk factor for the future.” This market dominance “underscores the need for a greater diversity in supply chains” according to the agency.
The report mentions the “shift of market leadership” which, contrary to the IEA’s intended effect, has already occurred to the disadvantage of the West. Half of the currently under construction projects are in China, and Beijing is expected to surpass the US and the EU in installed nuclear capacity by 2030, according to the IEA. This prediction could be overly optimistic for the West, especially if the AfD does not enter government in 2025 and Europe continues to stagnate on its hyper-sustainable, self-destructive climate agenda, denying its sovereign access to nuclear energy.
The report also touches on the topic of uranium enrichment capacities, which are highly concentrated, with over 99% of the world’s capacity controlled by four providers, with Moscow accounting for 40% of the world’s operational enrichment capacity.
The IEA attributes the above-mentioned symptoms to high expenses and delays in nuclear power projects, which are indeed caused by the bureaucracy of the EU and the US, as well as the overall lack of government support for other potential projects. Japan, Korea, Europe, and the US are urged to advance the development of nuclear technology to reclaim the market from Russia and China.
In essence, the report suggests that the political will is currently lacking. The “right turn” is once again at the forefront. Is this really the only one who could bring about a new turn? The CDU under Merz is trying to gain credibility and authenticity among voters by openly showing a hypothetical examination of the possibility of re-starting nuclear power. No other party, except the AfD, would make this possible in a CDU-led government coalition. Take, for example, the general wall of Merz against the AfD and his wish to work with the Greens to expose the lip service of the Christian Democrats. For Sahra Wagenknecht and her movement, the long-term technology is theoretically and theoretically interesting, but the resumption of nuclear power use for the next few years is more of a “nonsense.” The signs of a willingness for a “new energy transition” oscillate exclusively around the AfD.
As for the Western nations, which have not yet taken a knee, the IEA chief, Fatih Birol, admits that French and US nuclear projects are only being implemented with an average delay of eight years, with actual costs being 250% higher than initially estimated. In such timeframes, two (German or US) legislative periods can pass, where a “new energy transition” could be forced by the midpoint.
The poor performance of Western nuclear giants seems so attractive that the Ukrainian state-owned company Energoatom has reinforced its cooperation with the US-based Westinghouse Electric Company – a partnership that began in 2021 or even 2018. The same Energoatom, which once operated all Ukrainian NPPs, lost control of the Saporoschje NPP to the Russians in October 2022, thus contextualizing the military conflict in Ukraine around this aspect. This alone cannot alleviate the dramatic dependence of the US on Rosatom-supplied, enriched uranium. Furthermore, the Chinese state already acquired the AP1000 reactor technology from the US-based Westinghouse in 2006, with which new energy projects are planned in Ukraine, Poland, or Bulgaria.
Due to these multiple dependencies, it is all the more challenging to overcome warnings about a Russian-Chinese market dominance, as expressed by the IEA.