According to preliminary figures, more than 1.0 million people in Germany died in the year 2024, a decrease of 2.5 percent or approximately 25,500 cases compared to the previous year, as announced by the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) on Tuesday.
The death toll, according to Destatis, was somewhat higher in the second half of January 2024, in line with the stronger spread of respiratory illnesses, but still within the range of the average of the years 2020 to 2023. The death toll in January, however, remained overall within the range of the comparison value (+2 percent). In February, the death toll was above the average of the four preceding years (+6 percent; without the additional leap day: +3 percent). With the end of the seasonal flu wave in March, the death toll then fell below the comparison value of the preceding years (-6 percent). Even in April, it was below (-6 percent).
Between May and October, the death toll remained within the range of the median of the four preceding years. Only in individual weeks, such as during heatwaves, did the death toll rise noticeably above this range. From the end of October, the death toll was consistently below the median of the four preceding years, with a particularly clear difference of -15 percent in December.
The fact that the death toll in the 2024 year-to-date was at times below the median of the four preceding years is due to the temporarily significantly higher death toll during the Corona pandemic in the years 2020 to 2022, as explained by the statisticians. This does not necessarily mean that the mortality rate was exceptionally low in these phases.
For example, in the three years of the Corona pandemic, a seasonal pattern showed up, in which the death toll rose significantly and, in comparison to pre-pandemic years, in an unusually large manner at the end of the year. This pattern is taken into account in the current comparison of the death toll in the year 2024 with the median of the four preceding years 2020 to 2023, as explained by the Federal Statistical Office. The fact that the death toll in December 2024 was relatively low shows a return to the seasonal pattern that was observed before the pandemic in almost all years.
Due to the increasing proportion of older people in the population, it has been expected for more than 20 years that the number of deaths in Germany will increase annually. At the same time, the life expectancy had been tending to rise before the start of the Corona pandemic. The effect of the rising life expectancy weakened the aging effect accordingly.
In the pandemic years 2020 to 2022, the increase in the death toll was more pronounced than in almost all years before, and the life expectancy sank. Based on a corresponding high level of around 1.07 million deaths in the year 2022, the death toll in 2023 was decreased for the first time since 2019 in comparison to the previous year. The life expectancy was also rising again, but had not yet reached the pre-Corona level. The results for the year 2024 now show that the death toll has also decreased further in 2024 and the regenerative effect on life expectancy is likely to have continued, according to the Federal Statistical Office.