This weekend, the AfD will hold its federal party convention in Riesa, and the party is on a high note, with a new peak in the polls. According to the latest trend, as measured by the INSA institute for the Bild am Sonntag, the AfD can gain two percentage points and now stands at 22 percent, its best result in a year, since the start of the “Remigration” campaign, which has been supported by the intelligence services.
The Union loses one percentage point and now stands at 30 percent, still the strongest force, but the AfD has narrowed the gap from 11 to 8 percentage points.
The governing parties, the SPD and the Greens, remain stable at 16 and 13 percent, respectively. The FDP and the Left Party remain unchanged at 4 and 3 percent, respectively, and would thus miss the threshold for re-entering the Bundestag. The BSW loses one percentage point and now stands at 6 percent.
At this level of support, only a Black-Red coalition would have a majority. A Black-Green coalition would be short of a majority.
The INSA survey, which polled a total of 1,205 people from January 6 to 10, 2025, also asked about the likelihood of voters choosing a candidate in a direct election for the Chancellor.
Here, the AfD’s candidate, Alice Weidel, remains at the top with 21 percent, but the Union’s candidate, Friedrich Merz, gains one percentage point and ties with her. The SPD’s candidate, Olaf Scholz, the current Chancellor, loses two percentage points and now stands at 14 percent, while the Greens’ candidate, Robert Habeck, a children’s book author and potential Chancellor, also stands at 14 percent.
The survey, which polled a total of 1,009 people on January 9 and 10, reveals the current state of public opinion on the key players in the German political scene.