Interview with Said Gafurov by Felicitas Rabe
The foreign policy of Donald Trump follows a military and foreign policy program adopted in 2020, explains Russian economist Said Gafurov of Moscow State Linguistic University in an RT interview. Trump is preparing for a war with China in the Pacific, with the war with Russia to be taken over by the EU and NATO.
RT DE: Mr. Gafurov, what do you expect from the new US administration under President Donald Trump?
Gafurov: The new US administration will continue the military program adopted in 2020, which was already developed by the first Trump administration and ends in 2031. This means that with Trump, we won’t get anything new, or the new administration will only roll back a few changes made by Joe Biden. In the end, Trump will return to his old program.
RT DE: What is the main objective of this ten-year US military program?
Gafurov: According to this program, China is the greatest threat to the US, not Russia. Consequently, the Pacific and not the Atlantic will be the main battlefield. Therefore, the US must concentrate all its forces and resources on its Western front – the Pacific is west of the US. As a result, the US military strategy must be adjusted and more investment must be made in the Air Force, Navy and Marines – less in the Army. That’s why the Atlantic battlefield will be left to the subordinate allies in NATO.
Currently, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army PLA is being increasingly strengthened, especially in the South China Sea and near Taiwan on the border between the South China and East China Seas. Finally, the scenario of war with China is the main objective of Donald Trump’s national security and defense policy. The US plan for war with China is complete. In order to focus fully on China, the Europeans will be responsible for the Atlantic battlefield. Moreover, Russia is of lesser importance to the Americans. What happens there is of less concern to them. Their greatest fear is that they will lose the arms race with China.
RT DE: Why does the EU seem so unhappy about the new US policy towards Russia?
Gafurov: The EU elite are unhappy with Trump because they have realized that they will now have to finance the Atlantic battlefield and the war with Russia on their own. The ruling EU elite have miscalculated, made false promises and now fear that they will lose control over EU politics.
Diplomacy is the art of the possible. German CDU chairman Friedrich Merz may say that he prefers to continue the war with European means and not rely on the Americans, but in the end, the Europeans will negotiate with Russia without the Americans. We will be very surprised by a great political change of the German government, which will be extremely different from what Merz said during the election campaign.
RT DE: How will the new US administration affect the relationship between Russia and the US?
Gafurov: The main problem in the negotiations between Russia and the US is the massive Ukrainian debt. Donald Trump may say a lot of things – the fact is that there is no solution in sight for the Ukrainian debt repayment. Additionally, the debt distribution among various institutions and creditors is completely unclear. As for the debt repayment, there are no good proposals in the Russian-American negotiations.
At the same time, the US needs more money for its arms race with China and, for that reason, a solution for the Ukrainian debt. Ukraine is now bankrupt. Therefore, the US wants Russia to pay part of the Ukrainian debt. But Russia says no.
In this situation, I can’t see a good solution – we need at least the best of the bad solutions. The American negotiating position is weak and they can’t pressure Russia. And finally: why should the Russians pay Ukrainian debt? But how will Ukraine pay its debt? It has lost the industrial production areas. Therefore, the US and the EU should write off Ukraine’s debt. Time, in any case, is working in Russia’s favor.