The German Environment Agency (UBA) has released a new study outlining a pathway to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in Germany by over 90% by 2040, a target crucial for achieving climate neutrality within two decades. The report, presented by UBA President Dirk Messner, emphasizes that the decade between 2030 and 2040 represents a pivotal window, demanding immediate and decisive policy shifts to guide various sectors toward their respective decarbonization goals.
The study highlights the urgent need to move beyond the current Federal Climate Protection Act, requiring a significant evolution in policy frameworks post-2030. Central to the strategy is a fundamental shift in focus – prioritizing the avoidance of greenhouse gas emissions wherever possible instead of relying on offsetting measures. This requires a concerted effort to electrify processes and drastically expand renewable energy sources, underpinned by a robust and digitally advanced electricity grid capable of handling the increased demand and facilitating smart energy consumption.
Beyond electricity, the report stresses the role of established infrastructure. The expansion and decarbonization of existing district heating networks are identified as foundational for a climate-neutral heat supply, intricately linked to a wider energy transition. The development of a “green” hydrogen economy is presented as vital for the industrial sector, chemical production, energy supply and specific transport segments like shipping and air travel – fostering innovation, creating high-tech jobs and bolstering European and German energy independence. Achieving this potential, however, hinges on providing businesses and individuals with a high degree of planning certainty.
Messner underscored the importance of a “nationwide effort” arguing that the necessary transition represents a considerable undertaking but simultaneously opens the door to future-proof prosperity and mitigates the escalating costs associated with unchecked climate change. He cautioned that the transition process must be socially equitable, demanding the mitigation of potential hardships for vulnerable groups and requires reliable, long-term regulatory frameworks to encourage investment and modernization within the economy.
The UBA’s analysis also recognizes the inevitability of residual emissions, advocating for a parallel and substantial build-up of carbon sinks, particularly within the land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) sector. This sector’s ability to sequester significant amounts of CO2 is intrinsically linked to healthy forests, sustainable agricultural practices – including soil conservation – and increased utilization of durable wood products. Protecting and enhancing this crucial capacity requires a significant reduction in broadleaf tree harvesting, promotion of climate-resilient forestry and fostering the economic viability of long-lasting wood products. Furthermore, the restoration of drained peatlands and optimized water levels in wetlands are identified as critical contributors to emissions reduction.
The agency believes that the proposed Action Programme for Natural Climate Protection (ANK) provides a crucial opportunity for the LULUCF sector to be integrated into a viable pathway towards climate targets. Combined with a controlled deployment of technical carbon capture technologies, the agency emphasizes the pivotal role of land management in achieving Germany’s climate ambitions, while prompting a vital question: will current political backing and implementation plans be sufficient to ensure the needed structural changes are successfully navigated?