Germany faces a substantial increase in electricity demand through 2045, according to a new study by consultancy firm “Path to Zero”, as reported by the “Handelsblatt”. The analysis projects a national electricity consumption of 881.5 terawatt-hours annually by 2045, significantly higher than the current approximate level of 500 terawatt-hours.
This forecast aligns with a broad consensus emerging from several recent energy transition studies conducted over the past months. The “Handelsblatt”‘s assessment included analyses from “Path to Zero” Agora Energiewende, McKinsey, EnBW and Epico.
While differing in their specific recommendations for the progression of Germany’s energy transition, all evaluated scenarios predict a rise in electricity demand alongside the continued expansion of renewable energy sources. Projections for the scale of that expansion vary. For example, a study by energy provider EnBW anticipates 254 gigawatts of photovoltaic capacity by 2045 – notably less than other analyses. However, even to reach this target, the current rate of renewable energy installation would need to be sustained.
The speed of renewable energy expansion is currently a key topic of political discussion in Germany. Federal Minister for Economic Affairs and Climate Action, Katharina Reiche, has commissioned an “Energy Transition Monitoring” report, scheduled for completion on August 31st. This review comes amid recently revised, lower growth forecasts for the sector.