Germany faces a looming demographic crisis, according to a newly released population forecast by the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis). The 16th coordinated population projection paints a stark picture of an aging society and a shrinking workforce, raising profound questions about the nation’s long-term economic and social stability.
By 2035, nearly a quarter of the German population will be aged 67 or older – a significant rise from the one in five currently in that age bracket. This acceleration is directly attributable to the ongoing transition of the Baby Boomer generation into retirement, coupled with significantly smaller subsequent birth cohorts. The number of individuals aged 67 and over is projected to reach between 20.5 and 21.3 million by 2038, representing an increase of 3.8 to 4.5 million compared to current levels.
The ratio of retirees to working-age individuals is already concerning. Currently, 33 retirees are supported by every 100 working-age individuals. This figure is predicted to rise to 43 in 2070 under favorable conditions, but could potentially double to 61 in a scenario characterized by persistently low birth rates and limited net immigration. Such a severe imbalance would create an unsustainable burden on the social security system, with fewer than two contributors supporting each recipient.
The aging population is also driving a surge in the number of individuals requiring care. With half of those aged 80 and older already needing care in 2023, the cohort of individuals aged 80 and over is set for a pronounced increase from the mid-2030s onward, pushing the numbers from 6.1 million in 2024 to between 8.5 and 9.8 million by 2050.
The workforce is also shrinking. The number of individuals aged 20-66 is projected to decline significantly until the mid-2030s, a consequence of the Baby Boomer exodus. Despite assumed levels of immigration, this decline appears irreversible, potentially leading to significant labor shortages across critical sectors. By 2070, the working-age population could drop to as low as 37.1 million under conservative estimates.
German statisticians acknowledge that the total population will likely decrease by the end of the forecast period in 2070, even under favorable scenarios. The projection indicates a potential population of 74.7 million, a drastic reduction from current levels. Significant population growth is only anticipated under highly optimistic assumptions regarding birth rates and immigration.
Regional disparities are particularly concerning. While the western regions may experience only a marginal stabilization, eastern Germany faces a potentially much more drastic decline, with a projected population decrease of between 14% and 30% by 2070. The older age structure already prevalent in eastern Germany exacerbates these challenges. Conversely, city-states like Berlin and Hamburg are projected to experience growth, but even they could face a significant population decline if net immigration remains low.
The long-term implications of this demographic shift are profound, demanding urgent and comprehensive policy responses. These include strategies to encourage higher birth rates, incentivize immigration of skilled workers and reform pension systems to ensure their sustainability in a rapidly aging society. Failing to address these challenges threatens to undermine Germany’s economic competitiveness, social cohesion and overall prosperity.