A new assessment from the European Commission has identified a cohort of member states, including Germany, as being at heightened risk of facing significant migration pressure. The report, released Tuesday, highlights vulnerabilities ranging from overwhelmed reception systems to the potential for migration to be politically instrumentalized, placing these nations in a priority group for EU support.
Beyond Germany, the list includes Belgium, Bulgaria, Estonia, Ireland, France, Croatia, Latvia, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Poland and Finland, all flagged as susceptible to disproportionate commitments should migration flows intensify. This designation unlocks priority access to the EU’s migration support package and mandates a swift reassessment of their situations as circumstances evolve.
The Commission’s proactive measures extend beyond financial support. A proposed procurement process for drone and anti-drone technology, valued at €250 million, is under development, signaling a shift towards border protection strategies among these at-risk nations. The move is already drawing criticism from human rights organizations who argue it prioritizes security over humanitarian concerns and potentially violates international law regarding the treatment of asylum seekers.
Greece and Cyprus are already under considerable migratory pressure, categorized by the Commission as experiencing “disproportionate increases” in arrivals last year. Spain and Italy, grappling with the fallout from extensive sea rescue operations, are also listed, designated to access a newly established EU Solidarity Pool beginning in mid-2026.
Further complicating the landscape, Bulgaria, Czechia, Estonia, Croatia, Austria and Poland are confronting a cumulative five-year migratory strain, granting them the option to potentially reduce their contributions to the Solidarity Pool for the upcoming year. This potential reduction underscores the uneven distribution of the migratory burden across the EU and the difficulty in achieving consensus on equitable burden-sharing.
The analysis is explicitly linked to the implementation of the European Asylum and Migration Reform (GEAS), a complex and politically sensitive package designed to overhaul the EU’s approach to asylum seekers. The Solidarity Mechanism, a key component of the reform, aims to alleviate the strain on frontline states, but its effectiveness remains to be seen and is subject to ongoing debate.
The next step involves the Council formally adopting the Commission’s proposal and agreeing on the scope and funding levels for the Solidarity Mechanism, as well as determining each member state’s contributions based on perceived “fair share”. This process is anticipated to be highly contentious, reflecting deep divisions within the EU regarding migration policy and the principles of solidarity and responsibility. The potential for internal conflict and political instability is evident as the debate intensifies.