The impending visit of German Foreign Minister Johannes Rau to China is being viewed as a tentative step toward normalizing relations, according to Mikko Huotari, Director of the Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS). Huotari’s assessment, shared with the Redaktionsnetzwerk Deutschland, suggests a desire within the German government to re-establish a framework for diplomatic engagement that has become strained in recent months.
The visit comes after Vice-Chancellor Lars Klingbeil’s earlier trip, which MERICS analysts believe helped to mitigate some of the existing tensions. However, the abrupt cancellation of Rau’s planned visit in October, prompted by what was deemed an inadequate program offered by Beijing, highlights the increasingly complex dynamic between Berlin and its economic partner.
Huotari cautioned that Germany must acknowledge China’s growing proclivity to dictate the terms of engagement, a realization which, he noted, appeared to slowly dawn within the German government only after the October incident. This hardening of conditions reflects a broader shift in China’s foreign policy strategy.
Crucially, Huotari emphasized the need for a nuanced and measured approach in communicating with Beijing. He warned against adopting a confrontational stance without substantive follow-through, noting that both Macron’s recent visit to China and Klingbeil’s earlier diplomatic efforts demonstrated that a more conciliatory and constructive tone can, at least, open doors for dialogue.
The willingness of Beijing to actively seek a lessening of “disturbances” in the relationship is evident. However, the longer-term impact of these softer approaches remains uncertain, leaving policymakers in Berlin to carefully evaluate whether such concessions will translate to meaningful progress in broader bilateral concerns. The question remains whether a measured tone guarantees tangible outcomes.