A significant shift in public opinion regarding Germany’s long-held commitment to fiscal austerity has emerged, according to a new study by the Düsseldorf Institute for Macroeconomics and Business Cycle Research (IMK). The research, previewed by “Süddeutsche Zeitung”, reveals a growing acceptance of loosening the debt brake to fund increased defense spending, infrastructure investments and other critical areas.
For decades, Germans were synonymous with stringent budgetary discipline, but the confluence of global instability and economic headwinds appears to be prompting a reassessment. The study indicates that 41% of respondents “strongly” or “somewhat” support the exceptional regulations passed after the last federal election, while a further 22% remain neutral. Only 37% express outright disapproval. This represents a notable divergence from previous polling, which frequently showcased a majority opposition to relaxed debt rules.
The division along party lines is stark. An overwhelming 67% of Alternative for Germany (AfD) voters reject the easing of restrictions, with only 15% expressing support. Similarly, 60% of voters for the recently formed BSW party oppose the policy and a meagre 12% are in favour. In contrast, even within the traditionally fiscally conservative CDU/CSU bloc (Union), a decisive four-fifths of respondents either endorse the reform or are at least not opposed to it, with just 22% explicitly disagreeing.
The findings provide a crucial political platform for CDU leader Friedrich Merz’s recent policy pivot on the debt brake. It suggests he can rely on the backing of a solid majority within his own party base and signals that his shift avoids a potentially damaging backlash from core CDU voters. Support remains relatively low among voters of the Social Democratic Party (SPD) and the Green Party, at 18% and 20% respectively, indicating a generally favorable reception across the government coalition.
Perhaps most telling is the broad public endorsement of the €500 billion special fund earmarked for modernizing Germany’s rail, road, bridge and digital networks. A clear majority (51%) explicitly approve of this initiative, while another 16% are not opposed. Furthermore, 49% support the credit-financed expansion of defense spending, with 20% remaining neutral. Regarding expanded borrowing capabilities for the federal states, public opinion is more evenly split.
The study challenges the prevailing image of Germany as a nation of unwavering fiscal hawks, suggesting a willingness to adapt to evolving circumstances. As Jan Behringer and Lukas Endres, the study’s authors, note, the evolving sentiment towards the debt brake demonstrates that “many people see the current economic and geopolitical challenges as so serious that higher government debt is considered acceptable”. This sentiment is all the more striking given that a significant 62% of respondents acknowledge that the additional investments will inevitably lead to a “significant” increase in Germany’s debt levels. The research raises questions about the long-term implications of this evolving public attitude and its potential impact on Germany’s future economic and political landscape.