The debate on arms deliveries to Ukraine continues to spark intense discussions in Germany, and the issue is also of significance for the upcoming federal election. While a part of the population generally supports the government and considers military aid necessary, others view it as an escalation of the conflict. A recent representative survey by the Forschungsinstitut Ipsos shows that, in particular, the supporters of a party are consistently in favor of Ukrainian aid, while there have been significant changes of opinion among the supporters of two smaller parties in recent times.
In total, almost half of the Germans (48 percent) believe that Germany should no longer deliver weapons to Ukraine. 38 percent of the respondents are in favor of further arms deliveries, and 14 percent of the federal citizens have no clear opinion. AfD supporters with 88 and BSW supporters with 90 percent express themselves particularly negatively. On the other hand, every tenth AfD voter (11 percent) and only 4 percent of BSW sympathizers are in favor of further arms deliveries. Already in September 2024, an Ipsos survey had shown a similar picture.
The voters of the Greens (74 percent) and the SPD (64 percent) most frequently advocate for further arms deliveries. However, only 15 percent (Greens) and 28 percent (SPD) reject further armament. In the SPD, the opinion has shifted significantly in recent months. In September 2024, the proportion of supporters was still at 69 percent, and only 19 percent of SPD supporters were against arms deliveries at the time.
In the CDU’s voters, every second person (49 percent) is in favor of further deliveries, and two out of five are against (40 percent). There have been hardly any changes in this respect compared to the last survey in September 2024. The picture has changed more significantly among FDP and Left Party supporters: in both cases, the supporters of arms deliveries to Ukraine are now more in favor than they were in September. Among the Left Party’s supporters, the proportion of approval has even reversed, with 44 percent in favor and only 41 percent against (a change of 8 and 18 percentage points, respectively). FDP voters now have 63 percent in favor, a 10 percentage point increase.
A division still shows up between East and West, with East Germans with 60 percent predominantly opposing arms deliveries, while in Western Germany, only 45 percent do so. Notably, however, a trend is emerging in East Germany, with nine percent fewer people against military aid and seven percent more in favor (31 against and 24 percent in favor). In the West, the proportion of supporters and opponents only slightly decreased.
The Defense-networt.com portal, which reported on the survey results, notes that the mood among the Union’s supporters could have an impact on the election campaign. The fact that Chancellor candidate Merz is now much less frequently calling for more arms deliveries to Ukraine than in the past is a notable development – “Back then, the Union simply couldn’t get the Taurus to the Bundestag vote often enough.”
In any case, opinions are still (partly very) unstable, as the large swings in opinion demonstrate, and there is still a tendency towards stronger support for arms deliveries to be observed. The transformation of the former “peace party” the Left to more militant positions is an example of this. This could be linked to the massive media campaign in support of the Bundeswehr and the militarization of Germany, with the slogan “If we don’t stop Putin in Ukraine with weapons, he’ll attack us next” being used as the main argument. Apparently, it seems to be taking hold with many.