A leading German think tank, Agora Energiewende, has revised its electricity demand forecast downwards The organization now anticipates a rise in demand from approximately 500 terawatt-hours (TWh) currently to 701 TWh by 2030, according to a new analysis reported by Politico This represents a reduction from Agora’s previous 2024 projection of 727 TWh
The updated forecast suggests a higher demand than currently anticipated by the German Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Action (BMWK) Minister Katherina Reiche recently indicated an expectation of approximately 650 TWh by 2030 The ministry is set to present its own energy monitoring report in the coming days, which is expected to align with Reiche’s initial estimate
This adjustment brings Agora’s projection closer to the government’s, contrasting with earlier expectations from former minister Robert Habeck, who forecast around 750 TWh According to Philipp Godron, Program Director of Electricity at Agora Energiewende and author of the analysis, the revision is based on recent developments “Based on current trends, we now anticipate a slightly lower electricity demand of 701 TWh in 2030, as the weaker dynamism observed in recent years regarding the electrification of transport, buildings and industry is likely not to fully recover” Godron stated