Preliminary data from Destatis, Germany’s national statistics agency, paint a complex picture of industrial order intake in October 2025, revealing both encouraging gains and underlying vulnerabilities within the nation’s manufacturing sector. While the adjusted value of incoming orders increased by 1.5% month-over-month, the figures require nuanced interpretation, particularly given the sector’s reliance on a handful of significant contracts.
Excluding large-scale orders, the increase in order intake was more modest, rising just 0.5% compared to September. A three-month comparison (August-October) indicates a 0.5% decline overall and a smaller, but still concerning, 0.1% drop when factoring out volatile, high-value contracts. The previously reported 1.1% increase for September was itself revised upwards to 2.0%, highlighting the inherent uncertainty in early estimates and potential for future adjustments.
The ostensibly positive October performance was heavily skewed by a surge in the “other transport equipment” sub-sector – encompassing aircraft, ships, trains and military vehicles. This segment experienced a staggering 87.1% increase, driven by a single, substantial contract. While the boost from metal production and fabrication, registering an 11.9% rise, also contributed positively, a 16.2% decline in the production of electrical equipment tempered the overall effect. This reliance on a few specific, high-value sectors raises questions about the broader health of German manufacturing and the sustainability of this growth.
Investment goods orders fared comparatively well, increasing by 4.9% over the previous month. However, a contraction in orders for intermediate goods (-3.4%) and consumer goods (-2.2%) signals potential weakness in the wider economy. These declines are particularly worrying given growing evidence of faltering consumer confidence and a slowdown in global demand.
The international order landscape presents further cause for concern. Total foreign orders decreased by 4.0% month-over-month. While orders originating within the Eurozone showed a marginal increase of 0.1%, demand from outside the Eurozone plummeted by 6.5%. This divergence highlights the precariousness of German exporters’ reliance on global markets and the potential impact of geopolitical instability and trade tensions. Conversely, domestic orders surged by a notable 9.9%, potentially reflecting government stimulus measures but also indicative of a shift in spending patterns.
Real turnover within the manufacturing sector exhibited a slight increase of 0.3% for October, but remains significantly down compared to October 2024, registering a calendar-adjusted decline of 1.6%. Revisions to September’s figures revealed a greater-than-previously-reported downturn of 2.4%, further underlining the volatility of the current economic climate.
The data suggests a German manufacturing sector buoyed by specific windfalls and localized growth, masking deeper structural vulnerabilities and potential exposure to external economic pressures. Analysts caution that sustained growth will require diversification away from dependence on large contracts and geographical markets, alongside targeted policies to support domestic demand and bolster the resilience of smaller businesses.