Germany’s trade relationship with Bulgaria is undergoing a significant and potentially concerning, shift. New data released by Destatis, the German Federal Statistical Office, reveals a sharp increase in German exports to Bulgaria, coupled with a decline in imports from the nation, currently slated to join the Eurozone in January. While superficially positive for German exporters, closer examination raises questions about the nature of this trade imbalance and its long-term implications for Bulgaria’s economic sovereignty.
Between January and October 2025, German exports to Bulgaria reached €5.3 billion, a 7.2% increase from the previous year. This places Bulgaria as the 40th most important recipient of German goods, a notable climb from its position of 46th in 2007, the year of its EU accession. Simultaneously, imports from Bulgaria to Germany fell to €5.2 billion, representing a 6.2% decrease. This comparatively muted import growth contrasts with the exponential increase seen since 2007, when Bulgarian imports into Germany totaled just €1.6 billion.
The dramatic rise in German exports, particularly in vehicles and vehicle parts (€919.4 million), machinery (€692 million) and foodstuffs (including a striking 33.3% surge in chocolate exports), highlights a pronounced asymmetry in the economic relationship. While contributing to higher trade volumes, it potentially underscores a reliance on German goods hindering the development of competitive Bulgarian industries.
Furthermore, the composition of Bulgarian imports into Germany warrants scrutiny. A significant portion (€752 million) comprises “recovered materials” – primarily scrap metal and waste – a situation critics argue exposes a potentially exploitative dynamic where Germany is benefiting from Bulgaria’s handling of industrial waste streams, rather than importing manufactured goods. This raises questions about the value-added contribution of Bulgarian exports to the German economy and the potential environmental consequences of Bulgaria’s role in this trade dynamic.
The recent shift, resulting in an €84.1 million export surplus for Germany – a stark reversal from the consistent import surpluses seen between 2017 and 2024 – requires further investigation. Analysts suggest this change might reflect underlying structural issues within the Bulgarian economy, possibly linked to capital flows and foreign investment patterns. The potential impact of Eurozone membership on this dynamics remains a key concern, particularly regarding Bulgaria’s ability to maintain its economic independence and competitive advantage. The long-term sustainability of this increasingly skewed trade relationship demands a more nuanced and critical political assessment.