The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has slightly revised upward its global economic growth forecasts, including a modest adjustment for Germany. The organization’s latest projections indicate a 0.1% growth rate for the German economy in 2025, a marginal increase from the 0.0% forecast issued in April. The IMF maintains its 2026 growth expectation for Germany at 0.9%.
Despite the revision, Germany is expected to remain the slowest-growing major economy within the group examined. The Eurozone is now projected to expand by 1.0%, a 0.2 percentage-point increase from the April forecast, while global economic growth is estimated at 3.0%, representing a 0.2 percentage-point upward adjustment since that time.
The IMF’s updated projections show a growth rate of 1.9% for the U.S. economy, a slight upgrade from the 1.8% previously forecasted. This figure represents a reduction from the 2.7% growth initially expected in January. China’s growth forecast has been raised from 4.0% to 4.8%. The IMF now estimates Russian economic growth at 0.9%, a downward revision from the 1.5% anticipated in April.
The IMF cautioned that economic uncertainty remains elevated. A key concern stems from the scheduled expiration of temporarily suspended tariffs on most trade partners on August 1st, coupled with the U.S. government’s recent threats to impose even higher tariffs on some countries.
Furthermore, the organization flagged potential repercussions from the ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East. “An escalation of geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East or in Ukraine, could bring about new negative supply shocks for the world economy” the report states. Potential disruptions to shipping routes and supply chains, along with rising commodity prices – especially if infrastructure is damaged – could dampen growth and reignite inflationary pressures. The IMF warns that central banks may face increasingly difficult choices amid existing trade-related challenges.