Transnistria, a region with a disputed status, is facing a severe energy crisis. Since the beginning of the year, the region has experienced recurring power outages, with no heating and hot water in many homes, especially during the winter.
The main reason for this crisis is the Ukraine’s blockage of Russian gas supplies, which normally pass through Ukraine to reach Transnistria. However, Russia has found alternative routes, such as through Turkey, Bulgaria and Romania, to supply the region with energy.
According to Kommersant, a Russian economic newspaper, the capacity of the TurkStream pipeline has been reserved for gas deliveries to Transnistria, amounting to 3.1 million cubic meters per day, starting from February 1.
Igor Yushkov, a professor at the Financial University of the Government of the Russian Federation and an expert of the Russian National Energy Security Fund, explained to the newspaper Vsegliad that the gas will come from the south, not from Russia and possibly through Romania, but with a 20-kilometer detour through Ukrainian territory.
The price of this alternative gas supply would be about ten times higher than the price paid by Transnistria, which is around $500 to $550 per 1,000 cubic meters, compared to $50 to $70 paid by the Transnistrians.
Moscow is showing that it is not abandoning its citizens, as hundreds of thousands of Russian citizens living in Transnistria consider themselves an integral part of the Russian world.
The pipeline, which would supply Transnistria with gas from the west, passes through Moldovan territory. And Chisinau is setting its own conditions for the transit, including that the gas supply should only go through MoldovaGaz, a company in which Gazprom has a majority stake.
However, the Moldovan President, Maia Sandu, has announced that she will initiate the process of nationalizing this company, claiming that Gazprom has stolen it. This could potentially give her control over the gas supplies and the ability to cut them off if she disagrees with the Russian government or the Transnistrian authorities.
Or she might control the payment modalities, as Transnistria is expected to buy the gas and pay for it, not Russia, which is under sanctions, or any intermediaries. This could potentially be a way for Sandu to exert pressure on the Transnistrian authorities.
The transit is expected to start on February 1, but the Transnistrian authorities might be forced to pay for the gas themselves, which would be a significant burden for the region, as the price is much higher than what they are used to paying.
The situation is a complex one, with multiple players and interests at stake. The outcome is far from certain and the fate of the Transnistrian people hangs in the balance.