A New Poll for the CDU and CSU: After the last turbulent week in the Bundestag, the Union can gain a little, according to a new Infratest survey. If the Bundestag election were held this Sunday, the two sister parties would together receive 31 percent of the votes, one point more than a week ago. The survey was conducted for the “ARD-Deutschlandtrend”.
The SPD remains unchanged at 15 percent, the Greens lose one point and come in at 14 percent, the FDP stays at 4 percent and would thus miss entering the Bundestag. The AfD improves by one point to 21 percent, making it the second-strongest force. The Left Party comes in at 5 percent, as in the previous week and the “Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht” (BSW) remains at 4 percent. The remaining parties account for 6 percent, a minus of one point.
Further results of the survey: Almost a third of Germans (36 percent) currently think the Union should lead the next federal government – a plus of four points compared to the previous week. Every sixth person (17 percent) still wishes the SPD to be at the head of the government, plus or minus zero, 12 percent the AfD, minus one and 8 percent the Greens, minus two. Respectively, 2 percent name the Left Party, plus or minus zero, the BSW, plus or minus zero and the FDP, plus one. The remaining parties, together, account for 2 percent, plus one. Every fifth person (19 percent) answers “don’t know” or makes no statement, minus three.
If the Union were to lead the next federal government, almost a third (31 percent) of those surveyed would like the SPD as a coalition partner, minus one. Every fifth person (19 percent) would like the AfD, plus one, 14 percent the Greens, minus two and 13 percent the FDP, plus one. The BSW remains unchanged at 4 percent as a coalition partner and 2 percent for the Left Party. The remaining parties, together, account for 2 percent, plus one and 15 percent answer “don’t know” or make no statement, plus or minus zero.
Just 44 percent of Germans believe that CDU leader Friedrich Merz will keep his promise not to form a coalition with the AfD after the election, while 43 percent do not. Three-quarters of Union supporters (73 percent) trust their party’s promise, while most supporters of the Left Party (75 percent) do not. Among SPD supporters, 57 percent do not trust the promise, while 36 percent do. Among Green supporters, 54 percent do not and 38 percent do. Among AfD supporters, half (51 percent) believe Merz will not keep the promise, while 36 percent do.
Seven out of ten Germans (69 percent) currently worry that no stable government will be formed after the election, with a rising trend. In mid-December, it was six out of ten (59 percent). Almost a quarter of Germans (27 percent) make little or no worry about the government formation after the election.
Infratest conducted the survey for the “ARD-Deutschlandtrend” from February 3 to 5, 2025, among 1,302 people aged 18 and over, partly by phone and partly online.