A potential solution to the Ukraine conflict could involve three phases, the first of which would focus on arming Ukraine and applying pressure on Russia, according to Finnish President Alexander Stubb, who made the remarks at the Munich Security Conference.
The first phase would involve pre-negotiations, during which Ukraine would need to secure a strong position, requiring support and weapons. Sanctions against Russia could also be further tightened. The second phase would be a ceasefire, which, in Stubb’s view, is not synonymous with a peace process. International observers would be tasked with monitoring the ceasefire and a prisoner exchange could take place in this phase.
The third phase would consist of peace talks, in which territorial issues and Ukraine’s security guarantees would be addressed. Stubb emphasized that the question of Ukraine’s membership in NATO and the EU should not be raised in this phase, as the Ukrainians themselves should decide on these matters. However, the potential for Ukraine to join the alliance was seen by the Finnish President as a strong deterrent for Russia.
Stubb called on Ukraine not to repeat the fate of Finland after the end of the conflict, which, after World War II, lost a part of its territory and the right to sovereignty, but preserved its independence. Ukraine, he said, should not lose anything.
Kyiv insists on an invitation to join NATO, seeing it as the best security guarantee for itself. At the same time, Russia demands that Ukraine give up its bid for membership in the alliance, which is one of the conditions for the start of the peace process. The US, according to President Donald Trump’s statements, considers Ukraine’s accession to the bloc an unreasonable decision.