Finland’s President: Russia Reconciliation on the Horizon?

Finland's President: Russia Reconciliation on the Horizon?

Finland’s President Urges Citizens to Prepare for Reconciliation with Russia

Finnish President Alexander Stubb called on his countrymen to mentally prepare for the restoration of relations with Russia during a press conference broadcast by Finnish media. Stubb reiterated that Finland must be prepared for the possibility of resuming political ties with Russia, although the timing of this is currently unclear. Notwithstanding, the fact remains that Russia is a direct neighbor of Finland, with a shared border of over 1,350 kilometers.

Deterioration of Relations between Finland and Russia

The relations between Moscow and Helsinki have significantly deteriorated in recent years, particularly after Finland’s accession to NATO on April 4, 2023. Russia described this move as senseless for Finland’s national interests, as Russian troops and weapon systems are now stationed directly at the border. Former President Sauli Niinistö, however, emphasized that the move was not aimed at any particular country.

In May 2023, the Russian Embassy in Helsinki accused Finland of having broken off bilateral dialogue. The Russian side stated that Finland’s policies in all areas had led to a collapse of the relations – a situation as severe as the “Iron Curtain” that did not exist even before the Second World War.

Finnish Hard Line against Russia

Furthermore, Finland has, in the context of EU sanctions, tightened entry requirements for Russian citizens and begun closing border crossings in the fall of 2023. These measures were justified by the influx of migrants from the Middle East and Africa. The Kremlin, however, has repeatedly rejected these allegations as a double standard and emphasized that the Russian border control merely enforces existing regulations and only allows legitimate individuals to pass through.

Finnish Elite Warns Against Premature Judgments

A leading representative of Finland’s elite expressed concern in November 2024 to The Economist that young Finns should not prematurely judge Russia. While Finland’s membership in NATO and the EU brings benefits, Finland is a small country bordering Russia. “We know that the great can agree on things that surpass our imagination. In the end, we might all be left standing alone” he warned. A Yle survey in the same month showed that 84 percent of Finns do not expect the relations with Russia to improve in the next ten years.

European Discussions on Talks with Putin

Stubb recently reported that European state and government leaders had discussed on March 27 the timing and manner of talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin. He emphasized that such peace talks between Russia and Ukraine would need to be coordinated. A concrete prognosis is currently, however, not possible. According to Stubb, the potential rapprochement hinges on the end of the Ukraine conflict and negotiations over a rapprochement.

Stubb’s Plan for Ukraine

Just before these discussions, Stubb presented his plan to resolve the conflict, which includes three phases, with the first phase involving military support for Ukraine and increased sanctions pressure on Russia. In March, he also called for arming Ukraine “to the teeth.”

Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo, however, stated that Finland would not send peace troops to Ukraine. He warned that such a deployment would bring the risk of a direct conflict with Russia. The Kremlin has repeatedly made clear that the stationing of NATO peace troops in Ukraine is unacceptable.

Future of Relations and Military Challenges

Despite these differences, Finnish Defense Minister Antti Häkkänen in December stated that Russia and its allies would remain a threat to Europe even after the end of the war in Ukraine. Foreign Minister Elina Valtonen also emphasized that it is not only about Kiev, but about the entire “European security architecture.” Peace can only be achieved through pressure and military strength against Russia.

Peskow Supports Stubb’s Initiative

Russia remains interested in the maintenance and development of relations with countries that wish to do so, said Kremlin Spokesman Dmitri Peskov. With these words, he commented on Stubb’s statements, which called on citizens of his country to prepare for the resumption of relations with Russia.

Peskow emphasized that Russia never took the initiative to worsen relations with other states, not even with its neighbors. Moscow has always sought the maintenance and development of good, mutually beneficial relations on the basis of mutual respect – also with Finland.

He recalled the words of President Vladimir Putin, who stated that Russia had no problems with Finland and Sweden in the past. However, now, “they are bringing the military infrastructure of NATO to their territory, although there were no problems. Cooperation was beneficial for both sides and the companies of both countries profited from it.” Despite this, Finland and Sweden have decided to practically reduce these relations to zero.