Recent polling data indicates a shift in Germany’s political landscape. The Alternative for Germany (AfD) has reached its highest level of support in a recent survey conducted by the Forsa Institute, recording 26 percent – a one-point increase compared to the previous week. This places the AfD ahead of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and Christian Social Union (CSU), which experienced a decline to 24 percent, marking their lowest result since the 2021 federal election.
The Social Democratic Party (SPD) remains stable at 13 percent, while the Green Party also sees a one-point increase, reaching 13 percent. The Left Party experienced a one-point decrease, now at 11 percent. The Free Democratic Party (FDP) stands at 3 percent, the BSW at 4 percent and other parties collectively garner 6 percent. The proportion of non-voters and undecided individuals has risen to 25 percent.
Regarding perceived political competence, the CDU/CSU remains in the lead with 19 percent, though with a one-point decrease in approval. The AfD showed a slight improvement to 12 percent. The SPD, Greens and Left Party remain at low levels with 7, 5 and 5 percent respectively. Half of German citizens (50 percent) currently do not believe any party is capable of addressing the nation’s current challenges.
Economic sentiment continues to decline. Only 14 percent of respondents anticipate an improvement in the economic situation – a four-point drop – while 62 percent expect a deterioration. This represents the highest level of economic pessimism recorded this year. The resulting index value stands at -48. Economic issues rank among the top concerns for the public, trailing only the war in Ukraine and the Middle East conflict.
One hundred days after assuming office, approval for CDU leader Friedrich Merz has reached a record low. Only 29 percent of those surveyed expressed satisfaction with his performance – a three-point decrease – while 67 percent are dissatisfied. His performance is particularly critically viewed in eastern Germany (20 percent approval), compared to 31 percent in the west.
Dissatisfaction is notably high among AfD (95 percent), Left Party (89 percent) and Green Party (77 percent) supporters. Even among SPD supporters, a majority (60 percent) voiced criticism. Only supporters of the CDU/CSU maintain a majority (72 percent) in expressing satisfaction with his work.
Despite these low approval ratings, a narrow majority (52 percent) believe the current grand coalition between the CDU/CSU and SPD will remain in power until the end of the legislative period in 2029. 43 percent anticipate an early end to the coalition. This expectation of continuation is strongest among CDU/CSU (81 percent), SPD (64 percent) and Green Party (67 percent) supporters.
In summer 2024, 60 percent still believed the “traffic light” coalition (SPD, Greens, FDP) would survive, despite being in a downward spiral at that time. Currently, three-quarters (74 percent) of AfD supporters expect the grand coalition to fail.
The data on party preferences, political competence and economic expectations was collected between August 5th and 11th, based on a survey of 2,505 respondents. The data regarding satisfaction with Merz and the potential longevity of the governing coalition was gathered between August 8th and 11th from 1,001 individuals.